557
FXUS64 KTSA 171124
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

 - Near record temperatures continue through the work week with
   Heat Advisories in effect at times.

 - Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger
   winds, especially on Saturday across southeast Oklahoma.

 - Low afternoon shower/storm chances mainly across far E OK and
   NW AR Thursday. Higher rain chances arrive this weekend as a
   cold front passes bringing cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Unseasonably strong upper ridge will build slightly westward and
become centered nearer the local region by Thursday afternoon.
This will maintain near persistent conditions which ensures record
high temperatures will again be challenged Thursday afternoon.
Convective temps will be reached by mid afternoon and a few
showers and storms are again forecast primarily across far E OK
and NW AR w/ locally strong downburst winds possible. The ongoing
heat advisory has been expanded to reflect a similar footprint of
conditions observed Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Little change in temperature trends expected on Friday however
most guidance suggests dewpoints slightly lower. This may be
optimistic but, at this point, we will take any opportunity for
slightly lower heat stress conditions. Winds will increase on
Saturday and higher likelihood of lower dewpoints exists as winds
trend west of south allowing drier air to spread eastward. This
will raise fire weather concerns especially across E OK including
the larger timber fuels of SE OK.

The anticipated shortwave trough and associated cold front remain
forecast to pass through the area Sunday through Sunday night.
Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast with the
frontal passage and a notable cool down for early next week.
Temperatures may remain above normal despite the frontal passage
but at least triple digit heat will be squashed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Scattered to broken diurnal mid and high clouds develop today over
the CWA with mostly clear to passing high clouds forecast tonight.
A slight chance of afternoon convection remains for mainly
southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas TAF sites. With
anticipated limited coverage and uncertainty of impacts to any one
terminal, will hold off on mentioning in the TAFs. Within any
storms, localized gusty/strong wind gusts are possible. Storm
chances decrease after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
Winds through the period remain light and become variable
overnight. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions prevail
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  77  99  77 /  10   0   0   0
FSM  102  75 102  74 /  20   0   0   0
MLC  101  75 101  74 /  20   0   0   0
BVO  100  71 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   98  71  98  70 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   97  73  97  72 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   99  73  99  72 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   98  73  98  73 /  10   0   0   0
F10  100  73 100  72 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   98  73  98  72 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-055>058-060>071-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20