550
FXUS64 KTSA 151647
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1147 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1141 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

 - Unseasonably hot temperatures continue through the work week.
   Heat Advisories are in effect today and Wednesday.

 - Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger
   winds, especially across southeast Oklahoma.

 - Low afternoon shower/storm chances across the higher terrain of
   NW AR through Wednesday. Higher rain potential arrives this
   weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A cold front was draped across KS and up toward Lake Superior
this morning as the parent low advances into E Canada. This front
will continue to inch closer to the local area today but weaken
with time. Afternoon and evening convection is expected along the
boundary, though much of this should remain north of the FA. Short
term models continue to indicate outflow may push into N OK by
mid-late evening, mainly along and north of I-44. A couple storms
may develop in our area as this occurs, but PoPs generally remain
confined to locations near the OK-KS border in Osage/Washington
counties. Additionally, an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled
out this afternoon and early evening over the terrain of NW AR.
However, all things considered, the vast majority of the area
should remain dry with abnormally hot temperatures persisting. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of E OK and W-Central AR
for heat index values up to 107. Another mild night is likely with
low temperatures in the 70s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Our area will remain on the western edge of an upper level ridge,
centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley region, on Wednesday.
The front is likely to lift back north during the day with
southerly flow across the S Plains. High temperatures will remain
nearly steady with another day of advisory-level heat indices
expected for much of the area. Additionally, higher PWATs will
migrate into E OK and W AR, resulting in a slightly higher
coverage of afternoon showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon
and early evening. Still, rainfall will be spotty at best with dry
conditions remaining the rule.

The ridge drifts westward during late week, becoming centered
nearly overhead Thursday into Friday. This will result in
continued warm and predominantly dry conditions for the area.
Another cold front will be pushed south toward the forecast area
this weekend as a stronger upper trough moves through the
Central/Northern Plains. With upper level support closer, this
front is currently projected to push into our area, if not clear
it, early next week. Higher rain and thunder chances develop
during this time (Sat-Mon), but will be dependent on the position
of the front. Temperatures should cool off quite a bit going into
early next week, with many locations potentially falling back to
near or slightly below average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty south to
southwest winds at all sites except FSM will continue through the
afternoon, with gusts dropping off early in the evening. Any shower
or storm chances of note will remain north of the terminals this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  100  79 100  78 /   0   0  10   0
FSM  102  77 102  76 /  10  10  20  10
MLC  102  78 102  76 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   99  72 100  72 /   0  10  10   0
FYV   99  74  99  72 /  10  10  20   0
BYV   97  75  97  74 /  10  10  20   0
MKO  102  76 100  74 /  10   0  20  10
MIO   97  74  98  74 /   0  10  10  10
F10  101  76 100  74 /   0   0  10  10
HHW  100  76  99  75 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>071-
     073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053-
     055>058-060>063-066>068-070-071-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ129-219-220-
     229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22