455
FXUS64 KTSA 181141
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
541 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 538 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

  - Well above normal temperatures today (Tuesday) and Wednesday.

  - Unsettled pattern begins Wednesday with increasing shower and
    thunderstorm chances. Widespread showers and storms Wednesday
    night through Thursday night.

  - A few strong to severe storms possible Wednesday with primary
    hazard becoming heavy rainfall and associated flooding
    potential Thursday into Thursday night.

  - Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal
    normal this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

A warm front continues to lift northeastward across portions of far
northeast OK and far northwest AR late this evening. A passing
shortwave trough, as well as a 40-50 knot low-level jet (evident in
latest VAD wind profile at KINX) may help to contribute in
developing isolated to scattered storms later tonight or early this
(Tuesday) morning in the vicinity of the boundary. In fact, weak
echoes have already developed in Muskogee County as of this writing.
Enough moisture and elevated instability will be in place for the
potential of a couple of strong to marginally severe storms,
generally across far northwest AR and far northeast OK. Large hail
up to an inch in diameter will be the primary hazard with severe
storms. Storm and precipitation chances will taper off by daybreak
this (Tuesday) morning as the low-level jet weakens and the warm
front continues to lift northward.

A weak, trailing cold front will slowly move into the area from the
northwest this morning and into this afternoon before stalling near
the Red River tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will gradually
turn northwest/north following the frontal boundary, and in turn
will advect drier air into the area. Temperatures will warm up quite
a bit ahead of the weak front in the afternoon, reaching the low-mid
80s along and south of I-40; behind the front, temps warm up into
the mid-upper 70s.  The drier airmass following the boundary may
cause limited fire weather concerns in the afternoon, especially in
northeast OK. Tranquil and dry weather will continue into Tuesday
night. The drier airmass will help cool temperatures down into the
40s and 50s in most places, near 60 degrees along the Red River.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1030 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

The frontal boundary from today will lift back northward on
Wednesday, increasing theta-e and dewpoint temperatures into eastern
OK and northwest AR. An upper-level low will move over southern CA
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and southwest winds aloft will
take shape and bring in mid and high clouds. After a mostly dry and
mostly uneventful morning on Wednesday, a lead vort max will arrive
by the afternoon and will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms
to develop, first across southeast OK, then spreads northeastward
over the region by Wednesday evening/night and into Thursday.
Instability will increase as the vort max move over the area
Wednesday afternoon. Model soundings continue to support the
potential for strong to marginally severe storms Wednesday
afternoon/evening. However, instability should begin to decrease
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.

The main concern in the long-term period continues to be a heavy
rain and flooding potential beginning late Wednesday night and
persisting through Thursday night.  Precipitable water values will
increase to near the 99th percentile, in excess of 1.5 inches,
across much of the CWA by Thursday morning. Forecast models continue
to disagree on where the bulls-eye of heaviest rain will fall
through Friday, but have generally trended with a range between 1-3
inches across the entire CWA, but locally higher amounts are
probable. Will continue to monitor trends and hopefully have a
better grasp on QPF over the next 12-24 hours.

The upper-level low will gradually move over the Plains late
Thursday night into Friday morning and rain chances will begin to
decrease from west-to-east through the morning and afternoon Friday
as deterministic models have persistently shown a dry slot wrapping
around the base of the low. A few lingering showers may persist near
the center of the low, which is forecast to move across the KS/OK
and MO/AR borders Friday afternoon/evening.  An associated cold
front to the upper low is forecast to move through the area Friday
afternoon and evening. Temperatures should drop closer to seasonal
average for the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Another
storm system may impact the area by Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

MVFR ceilings at the southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
sites will scatter out around mid morning at KMLC and around
midday at the Arkansas sites. Fog will reduce visibilities for the
first couple hours of the forecast period at KBVO. VFR conditions
will prevail at all sites this afternoon and tonight. Southwest
winds will gust to near or above 20 knots at the northwest
Arkansas sites today before diminishing by late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  48  74  60 /   0   0  10  60
FSM   84  54  79  62 /   0   0  10  70
MLC   84  53  81  63 /   0   0  10  70
BVO   75  43  70  54 /   0   0  10  60
FYV   79  48  75  59 /   0   0  10  70
BYV   78  49  73  59 /   0   0  10  60
MKO   80  50  77  61 /   0   0  10  70
MIO   75  47  72  58 /   0   0   0  70
F10   80  50  77  61 /   0   0  10  70
HHW   84  60  82  63 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05