Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
076 FXUS64 KTSA 151146 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 546 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 535 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Well above normal temperatures through early next week. - Dry weather will persist into early next week, with periodic breezy days which could locally raise grassland fire concerns, especially on Monday. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week with a heavy rain threat mid to late week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Saturday Night) Issued at 1055 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Southerly winds will maintain unseasonably mild and humid conditions prior to sunrise this (Saturday) morning. Latest guidance from HREF, SREF, and other hi-res model indicate patchy fog developing around or just after midnight, mainly north of I-44. There is still some uncertainty how far south and east fog will be able to develop. This is mainly due to high clouds and slightly stronger winds forecast right along and just south of I-44. Highest probabilities (30-50%) of visibilities dropping to or below 1/2 mile will remain across Osage, Pawnee, Washington, far northern Tulsa, and western Nowata counties. If/where fog does form, visibilities should gradually improve after sunrise. The main storyline for the day will be the potentially record or near-record hot temperatures by this afternoon, ahead of a weak cold front. Guidance has been consistent showing 850mb temperatures spiking between 20-22C across much of the region this morning. An abundance of mixing through the morning and into the afternoon should drastically increase temperatures. Additionally, recent runs of the HRRR (as well as other hi-res models) have been persistent in suggesting a pseudo-dryline bulge mixing eastward from central OK, setting up generally in the vicinity between I-44 and just south of I-40 and west of Highway 69 in eastern OK. This is the corridor where the warmest temperatures are forecast to occur, just ahead of the approaching front, where values 85F+ are anticipated due to the drier air. Another area where temperatures may spike to 80F+ will be in the Arkansas River Valley, where these kind of setups typically and rigorously increase temperatures in this area. There will be plenteous cirrus clouds aloft, especially during the morning hours, which may affect temperatures some. However, these high clouds are expected to thin and scatter out as the afternoon progresses. Winds will start off mainly out of the south by daybreak this morning, turning more southwesterly by late morning. Though a slight increase of wind speeds will occur after sunrise, sustained speeds should generally remain between 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph ahead of the front. Though there is still some uncertainty on timing of the front, consensus in guidance suggests the front will push through from northwest to southeast beginning mid-late afternoon, with generally light to moderate winds in its wake. Despite a drop in dewpoints/relative humidity values along and west of Highway 75, winds should remain light enough to cause only a limited to locally elevated fire weather danger through this afternoon. Forecast guidance suggests the frontal boundary will slow down and struggle to push through southeast OK and western AR this evening into late tonight. In any case, there is not a whole lot of cold air advection behind the front. Low temperatures into Sunday morning may be about 5-10 degrees cooler than this (Saturday) morning for many locations, generally mid-upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures will be a bit warmer across southeast OK and west-central AR, mid-upper 50s. Despite the slight cooldown, these temperatures are still about 10-15 degrees above seasonal average. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 1055 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Abnormally warm and dry weather will persist through at least the early part of next week. Though temperatures will cool down slightly Sunday behind Saturdays cold front, mid/upper level ridging will move across the region on Sunday, keeping temperatures unseasonably mild. A shortwave trough will eject off the Rockies and push across the Central Plains, remaining north of the area, during the daytime Monday. This will cause Saturdays frontal boundary to lift back northward move across the area. A few, low-impact, showers may develop Monday into Monday night, mainly across northwest AR and far eastern OK, as the boundary moves through. Breezy southerly winds will also develop in the afternoon as the frontal boundary retreats northward, causing limited to elevated fire weather concerns, especially across portions of northeast OK where relative humidity values will be lowest (25-35%). Another weak and dry frontal boundary will push into northern portions of the CWA late Monday night into Tuesday morning as the surface low shifts north and east of the area. The overall weather pattern becomes much more active mid to late week, with multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain and even a few thunderstorms. A potent upper-level low/trough will dig south along the West Coast Monday-Tuesday, drifting over the Desert Southwest by Wednesday morning. Deep and rich moisture will be transported northward into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of the approaching upper low. Models and ensembles continue to favor heavy to locally excessive rainfall Wednesday-Friday, with a bullseye across southeast OK and western AR, as the upper-level trough/low approaches and drifts overhead. There is still lots of discrepancies in model and ensemble data of how this system will evolve and track. The forecast will continue to be refined over the next few days. Overall, confidence is increasing that multiple rounds of heavy rain will occur through the second half of the workweek, but it is still unclear where the heaviest rainfall will occur at this time. Mejia && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Locally dense fog at KFSM will burn off around mid morning. Some fog will also be possible at KBVO for the first couple hours of the forecast period this morning. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions will prevail, with southwest winds gusting to near or above 20 knots today at the southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites. Winds will shift to the north and become light late this afternoon and this evening. Some fog and or low cloud development will be possible tonight at the northwest Arkansas sites, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF`s at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 83 51 74 53 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 83 56 77 53 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 85 54 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 81 45 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 80 51 73 49 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 79 50 68 49 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 84 54 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 79 48 71 51 / 0 0 0 10 F10 86 53 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 82 57 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...05