237
FXUS64 KTSA 072330
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

 - Headline-worthy heat is expected to persist through at least
   Wednesday. Cooler temperatures are expected to close out the
   week.

 - Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms this
   afternoon and again on Tuesday. Storms may produce locally
   strong wind gusts and brief heavy rainfall.

 - Localized fire weather concerns will continue to exist through
   Wednesday due to the worsening drought.

 - Rain/storm chances increase for the second half of the workweek
   as a front pushes into the area Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Mid/upper-level ridge over the Southern Plains will begin to
strengthen this afternoon and into this evening, reaching its peak
strength Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As such, models
show fairly stout subsidence between 500-250mb, significantly
limiting diurnal convection Tuesday as well as maintaining
egregiously hot and miserable conditions. At the surface, a weak
pseudo-stationary boundary that has been draped in the FA since
late Sunday afternoon will washout as it tries to lift northward
Tuesday afternoon. Despite the strengthening ridge, there should
be enough low/mid-level moisture for a few isolated diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, mainly focused near the weak boundary
as well as higher terrain areas in the afternoon. Though organized
severe weather is not expected at this time, inverted-v profiles
from forecast CAM soundings suggest storms with stronger updrafts
will carry stronger downburst/wind gust potential.

Dangerously hot daytime temperatures and very mild nighttime
temperatures will continue through short-term period. The
strengthening ridge will cause afternoon ambient temperatures on
Tuesday to once again rise into triple digits for most areas.
Combined with the humidity, heat indices will average between
105-110 F, with a few locations exceeding 110 F in the afternoon.
Another Heat Advisory has been issued for the majority of the FA
Tuesday afternoon. Due to lower confidence, opted not to issue an
Extreme Heat Warning for now, but this upgrade may be needed for
portions of the area (specifically for areas in the Arkansas River
Valley and in and around the Tulsa metro) by the next forecast
package.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Upper-level heights will peak late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Thus, Wednesday looks to be like another oppressively
hot day, with additional heat headlines likely needed for most
locations.

Ridging begins to elongate and flatten late Wednesday afternoon
and evening as a robust trough swings across the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest. Models and ensembles continue to be in good
agreement in pushing a modest cold front into the area, but exact
timing and just how far south it is able to push is still a little
murky. Regardless, confidence continues to increase regarding the
front bringing in widespread cloud coverage and rain chances
Wednesday afternoon/evening and lingering into Friday before the
front lifts back northward and southerly flow returns. The front
is anticipated to stall somewhere near the the I-40 corridor
during the daytime Thursday, per latest guidance. This may change.
Temperatures are expected to drop closer to seasonal average
behind the frontal boundary on Thursday, which should feel
drastically more comfortable in comparison to recent days. Out ahead
of the front, temperatures will remain unseasonably hot, but
cloud cover should keep temperatures from reaching triple digits,
at least.

NWP models begin to diverge with solutions by the end of the week
and into the upcoming weekend. However, there is good consensus
that the FA stays on the eastern periphery of the ridge and just
on the southern periphery of a longwave trough before ridging
builds back in and becomes the more dominate feature again by
Sunday. Both GFS and ECMWF try to bring another weak frontal
boundary Saturday afternoon/evening, stalling the front near the
KS/OK border by Saturday evening, and then lifting it back north
on Sunday morning. Needless to say, confidence of this occurring
is low at this time, given the inconsistencies in the models
recently. Overall, the good news is that the general trend in the
long-term seems to be slightly wetter and slightly cooler compared
to recent days and weeks.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Convection in vicinity of KFSM will linger for first hour of TAF
period before boundary layer stabilizes. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected through the period. Winds will generally be less than
10kt though some initial erratic gusts remain possible near KFSM
for the first hour. Mid-level ridge intensifies through Tuesday
afternoon with another round of isolated storms along the
periphery with any brief impacts at AR terminals after 19Z. Will
let later shifts include Prob30s as confidence increases at any
one location.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  102  80 102  81 /  20  10  20   0
FSM  104  75 103  77 /  20  10  20   0
MLC  102  77 103  77 /  20  10  20   0
BVO  102  74 103  75 /  20  10  10   0
FYV   98  71 101  74 /  20  10  20   0
BYV   97  70 100  75 /  20  10  20   0
MKO  103  75 101  75 /  20  10  20   0
MIO  100  75 101  77 /  20  10  20   0
F10  101  76 102  76 /  20  10  20   0
HHW  101  76 100  75 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>071-
     073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053-
     055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-129-
     219-220-229.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-129-
     219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...24