444
FXUS64 KTSA 190726
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
226 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

   - A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible this morning
     across parts of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.

   - Dry and summer-like conditions are expected beginning this
     afternoon and continuing into next week. Afternoon heat
     index values near or above 100 degrees will occur in some
     places.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

A few showers and thunderstorms have developed this morning near
the Interstate 40 corridor, with the greatest precipitation
coverage across west central Arkansas. This activity has formed
near the old remnant surface boundary separating very humid
conditions to the south from slightly drier conditions to the
north. Some of these showers and storms may linger into the
morning hours before dissipating. Temperatures will be on the rise
today, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Afternoon heat index values will approach or reach 100 degrees in
some places, mainly near and south of Interstate 40.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

As an upper ridge aloft builds over the area and then camps out
just to our east this weekend into next week, summer-like weather
will take hold across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. We
can expect high temperatures to reach the low to mid 90s, with
overnight lows in the low to mid 70s, each day, with minimal rain
chances. Isolated diurnal convection may develop each day from
about Tuesday on next week, mainly over the higher terrain areas,
but coverage will remain low. Afternoon heat index values from 100
to 105 degrees will become more common, with Friday possibly seeing
the highest heat index values. Breezy south winds will help
somewhat in taking a bit of the edge off the heat, but this will
be our first prolonged stretch of hot and humid weather this year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have started to develop late this
evening along the elevated frontal zone, and this will likely
continue into the overnight hours, with the highest chances across
sern OK and into portions of nwrn AR. Otherwise, patchy fog to
develop toward sunrise, which may periodically impact flight
conditions across nern OK and far nwrn AR. Fog erodes by mid morning
with VFR conditions prevailing through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  75  93  77 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   92  73  94  76 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   91  74  93  75 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   90  70  93  75 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   89  67  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   88  67  92  74 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   90  73  92  76 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   88  69  92  75 /   0   0   0   0
F10   90  73  92  75 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   91  74  92  75 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07