403
FXUS64 KTSA 061749
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1149 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1116 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

 - Potentially more widespread severe weather threat with all
   modes possible may develop this afternoon and continue into
   early Saturday morning.

 - Continued heavy rainfall potential through Saturday morning
   with a localized flash flooding threat.

 - Dry for Sunday, but additional storm chances return early to
   middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

An active severe weather day is still anticipated over the local
area from this afternoon through tonight, though details regarding
the corridor of highest threat remain unclear. At this time, the
potential for higher-end severe weather exists, with areas east of
Highway 75 generally favored, but this threat remains highly
conditional. BLUF...residents of eastern Oklahoma and west central
and northwest AR need to remain alert to severe weather potential
and keep up with the forecast as details start to emerge over the
next several hours.

At present, a band of elevated thunderstorms continues along and
west of Highway 75 in northeast OK in a zone of low level warm
advection. Latest CAMs continue to weaken this and lift it north
into early this afternoon, which makes sense, but they have
struggled with the initialization. For the moment these remain
sub-severe, though MUCPAE of around 1000 does support a hail
threat. One signal that has emerged in the data is for additional
discrete cells to develop this afternoon within an axis of
stronger sfc-based instability that spreads north into SE OK and
eventually points north later this afternoon. Early signs of this
could be in developing convection currently across central TX,
which would lift northeast into this increasingly unstable air.
Should these sustain, this might be the best opportunity for more
significant severe weather, especially as low level jet
strengthens this evening. But again, uncertainty remains quite
high.

By late this evening and overnight, a cold front will begin to
push southeast across the local area, with additional convection
forced along this boundary. Still not clear how much the
environment will be impacted by storms today, but frontal storms
should at least pose a limited wind threat overnight, while
becoming more focused over southeast OK and into WC AR with time.
Front may tend to undercut storms which could be a limiting
factor as well.

Finally, worth noting that PWAT values well above climatology
reside over the region, and will support high rainfall rates in
more sustained convection. OVerall rainfall amounts could end up
highly variable, but at least localized 3-4" amounts are feasible
and would result in some flash flooding through tonight,
especially from SE OK through NW AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Saturday near the
frontal zone and continue through much of the morning at least.
Lingering potential for severe weather continues, though most
storms are expected to be elevated, outside potentially areas
near the Red RIver early. Once this finally clears the area, quiet
conditions prevail Saturday night and Sunday, with a light freeze
possible Sunday morning across some of NE OK and NW AR.

Cutoff portion of upper low is forecast to eject into the
southern plains early next week with rain and thunderstorm chances
returning. Some additional flooding and severe potential will
likely exist into mid-week. Pattern is then expected to transition
back to a more settled WNW flow aloft late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1057 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue near
and west of KTUL, KRVS, and KBVO through 20Z. Ceilings of 2.5-
4kft will persist for eastern OK. Storm coverage will increase
into the afternoon and evening from southwest to northeast. Some
of the storms may be severe with large hail and damaging wind.
Storms will also produce locally heavy rainfall with lowered
visibility. Ceilings will decrease to 1.5-3 kft for much of the
area for the late afternoon and evening as well. Multiple rounds
of storms are possible until after midnight.

A cold front will then move through after midnight with
precipitation winding down behind the front. Breezy south winds
will shift to northwest. Ceilings will break up and rise into the
mid morning period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  46  61  38 /  70  60  10   0
FSM   79  58  70  43 /  60  90  60  10
MLC   77  50  66  41 /  80  80  30  10
BVO   75  41  60  33 /  60  60   0   0
FYV   78  50  67  37 /  50  80  50  10
BYV   76  55  65  38 /  50  90  50  10
MKO   77  48  62  37 /  80  80  20  10
MIO   75  45  58  36 /  60  80   0   0
F10   76  46  60  37 /  80  70  10  10
HHW   78  57  68  46 /  70  90  70  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...06