814
FXUS64 KTSA 011729
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

 - Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances and well below
   normal temperatures forecast for the Labor Day holiday.

 - Those with outdoor plans for the holiday should consider
   sheltering options and remain weather aware, with lightning and
   low potential for locally heavy rain in the forecast.

 - Stronger cold front by late week will drop temperatures even
   further through next weekend, maintaining well below normal
   temperatures.

 - Periods of showers and thunderstorms to continue through much
   of the latter part of this week and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Showers persist at midday across much of eastern Oklahoma and into
western Arkansas, in response to a mid level disturbance moving
through the region and a continued moist environment. This activity
is likely to continue through the afternoon and into the overnight
hours, with the western edge gradually shifting east with time. The
NBM initialization is not handling the expected evolution of this
batch of showers very well, with the short-term blend showing modest
improvement over the NBM in that regard. The evening POP grids are
the result of a hand edited blend of the NBM and short-term
guidance. In addition to the ongoing showers, a somewhat more
organized batch of showers and thunderstorms remains expected this
evening and overnight in response to the strong upper level
disturbance dropping through the Central Plains at present. Both the
NBM and short-term guidance handled this expected development well.
A low threat for locally heavy rain and flooding will continue, with
a very low chance of locally damaging winds with the more organized
storms this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms should be ongoing Tuesday
morning, focused across the eastern half of the area. A few may hang
on across parts of western Arkansas into Tuesday evening before
fully shifting east of the area toward early Wednesday morning.

Attention then turns to the Thursday front. Wednesday looks to be
the warmest day of the period, with dry conditions behind the upper
low passing through the region tonight and tomorrow and a pre-
frontal warm-up evident in low level temperature forecasts. Data
trends continue to show an increased likelihood for only a glancing
blow from this first front, with parts of far northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas seeing noticeably cooler temperatures Wednesday
night and Thursday. The bigger impact from this front may be an
increased potential for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night
across areas roughly along and north of Highway 412.

A second front late Friday into the early part of the weekend looks
to have more impact, although confidence remains fairly low at this
point. Temperatures on Friday may actually warm to near normal
levels along the Red River in advance of this front, with cold air
currently looking to reach that region by Saturday. Shower and
isolated thunderstorm potential will focus on the front through this
period, with a gradual southerly shift in the axis with time. If
this front does make it fully into the area, leading to more impact
from the trailing surface high, the shower and thunderstorm chances
will end much quicker - likely by late in the weekend - than
currently featured in todays forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through
the period. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will persist through the afternoon and into this evening as a cold
front approaches from the north. Left the mention of thunder out
of the TAFs at this time due to low confidence in thunderstorm
coverage and low thunder probabilities. Locally heavy rain may
cause brief MVFR cigs/vsbys within stronger showers and storms
through the period. Maintained PROB30 groups at most sites, with
timing based on latest hi-res model data precipitation timing.
Precip timing will likely need to be amended and adjusted through
the afternoon as the overall situation continues to evolve.
Otherwise, scattered to overcast mid and high clouds should remain
common along with variable to east/southeasterly winds through
the period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  81  63  85 /  30  20   0   0
FSM   67  85  66  87 /  30  30  10   0
MLC   65  83  64  85 /  20  20   0   0
BVO   61  80  58  85 /  30  10   0   0
FYV   61  81  59  84 /  30  30  20   0
BYV   61  80  60  83 /  20  40  20  10
MKO   65  81  63  84 /  30  20   0   0
MIO   61  80  60  84 /  40  20   0   0
F10   64  80  61  84 /  20  20   0   0
HHW   67  83  64  85 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...67