940
FXUS64 KTSA 161720
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

 - A weak front approaching the area from the north will bring low-
medium chances (20-50%) for storms for parts of northeast Oklahoma
and far northwest Arkansas late tonight and Thursday.

 - Precipitation chances drop off and temperatures increase by the
end of the week as ridging builds in aloft. Hot and dry weather will
likely persist through the weekend and into next week with Heat
Advisories likely.

 - Low chance (20%) of showers and storms in far southeast Oklahoma
Saturday associated with a possible tropical disturbance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A weak cold front will drop south into southern Kansas late tonight
before stalling near the Kansas/Oklahoma border Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front may move into parts
of northeast Oklahoma late tonight, with the highest rain chances
near the Kansas border. Overnight low temperatures will be in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Shower and storm chances will continue Thursday across parts of
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas in the vicinity of the
weak frontal boundary. The front will wash out by Friday, and an
upper ridge will then build over the area for this weekend and
beyond. This will lead to an extended period of hot and humid
weather with very little chance of precipitation. The lone exception
may be across far southeast Oklahoma Saturday as a tropical
disturbance passes to our east bringing a low chance of showers and
storms to that area.  Heat headlines will likely be needed by
sometime this weekend, and likely well into next week as well.
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions expected through much of the period across all
sites. Spotty showers or storms will be around again this
afternoon, though low coverage prohibits mention at any site at
this time. Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds will also
continue through the afternoon before dying off near sunset. A
weak front will approach NE OK late tonight with increasing
chances for showers and storms across NE OK sites early tomorrow
morning with KBVO having the best chances at seeing storm impacts.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  93  75  96 /  20  30  10   0
FSM   76  96  75  97 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   75  95  73  96 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   74  91  72  96 /  30  50  20   0
FYV   72  92  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
BYV   72  91  71  95 /  10  30  10  10
MKO   75  94  73  95 /  10  20   0   0
MIO   74  91  73  94 /  20  50  20  10
F10   75  94  73  95 /  10  20   0   0
HHW   74  94  73  95 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...04