803
FXUS64 KTSA 291812
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1212 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

 - Cold and windy conditions return this afternoon and tonight
   behind a cold front. Wind chills are expected to be in the
   teens by daybreak Sunday across NE OK and NW AR.

 - Cold temperatures will persist through Tuesday morning. With
   the cold air in place, there is a chance for mixed wintry
   precipitation Monday into Monday night. There is a low to
   medium chance for minor impacts, mainly in the terrain of SE OK
   and NW AR.

 - Temperatures warm somewhat into the middle of next week before
   another dry cold front arrives. No winter precipitation is
   expected with this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1211 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A chilly night is in store as colder temps and gusty NW winds
move into the region behind a cold front. Expect decreasing clouds
in some places (except for portions of NE OK and far NW AR where
low clouds may persist for longer) and dry conditions. Wind chills
will drop into the teens by daybreak Sunday across NE OK and NW
AR.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1211 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Focus then turns to Monday, when the next storm system is expected
to affect the region. Lower clouds will be on the increase from
the SW Sunday night, with models showing some chance for some
spotty light precipitation during the day Monday across E OK and
eventually into NW AR. Model soundings indicate saturation at
levels too warm to support ice initiation, thus it should be
liquid if it occurs. Using a blend of NAM/HRRR/NBM surface temps,
the freezing line is likely to lie just to the north and west of
Tulsa Monday morning and over portions of NW AR. Where temps are
near freezing, some slick spots are possible so it bears watching.

The highest potential for some impactful wintry weather will be
with the stronger waa plume on the western fringe of the warm
conveyor ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This is
expected to spread across SE OK into west-central AR Monday
afternoon and evening. Model soundings indicate a warm layer
aloft, and wet- bulbing in the relatively heavier precip will keep
surface temps near freezing, especially in the higher terrain
areas. It is here where the highest potential for light icing
would occur, with low to medium chances for minor impacts that
would justify advisory issuance. This area of precip should shift
rapidly east and end by midnight Monday night.

Farther to the north and west, there will be some potential for
light snow closer the upper system across NE OK and NW AR. However,
moisture will be limited here and the system will be moving fast,
limiting accumulation potential. In fact, it appears that if
there is any snow accumulation, a few tenths (a dusting) at most
is possible over far NW AR before the event ends.

Another cold front is expected midweek, but should come through
dry. Some more unsettled weather is possible toward the end of the
upcoming week. However, by this time the airmass will have
modified enough to support just liquid precip. Wintry precip
chances have been removed for this time period for now.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Strong cold front now moving into northeast OK will pass
TUL/RVS/BVO shortly after 18z, MLC by about 20z and enventually
through NW AR sites 22-00z. Ahead of the front, gusty south winds
continue with MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings with scattered
showers. Fairly abrupt shift to northwest winds with gusts in the
25-35 knot range after the front passage. Does appear flight
conditions will improve behind the front as drier airmass pushes
in from the northwest, just how quickly remains in question.
Current trends suggest eastern OK sites along with KFSM should
improve to VFR by 00z, with guidance indicating potential for low
ceilings to stick around NW AR considerably longer. Forecast for
now does show VFR at all locations after 12z Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   24  37  28  37 /   0   0  10  30
FSM   28  44  29  38 /   0   0  10  30
MLC   26  41  29  40 /   0   0  20  30
BVO   21  35  24  35 /   0   0   0  30
FYV   23  38  25  37 /   0   0  10  30
BYV   23  36  24  33 /   0   0   0  40
MKO   26  39  29  37 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   23  35  26  35 /   0   0  10  30
F10   25  38  29  37 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   28  44  32  38 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ054>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14