482
FXUS64 KTSA 031027
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
527 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 523 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

 - Lower shower and storm chances Wednesday though confidence is
   low.

 - Unsettled pattern and plentiful moisture return to maintain
   daily shower and thunderstorm chances beginning Thursday through
   the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Ongoing convection across E OK and NW AR is primarily being aided
by the slow moving remnant MCV that is drifting southward through
E OK. Drier low level air is attempting to advection westward into
the local region but is making slow progress. While the bulk of
guidance focuses higher rain chances west of the area on Wednesday
the forecast confidence is low and overall coverage by afternoon
by again trend higher. Slow storm motions have allowed for locally
heavy rains and this will remain a concern given the weak
steering flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A brief lull in rain chances is currently forecast for Wednesday
night before the pattern returns to persistent subtle forcing
within a plume of rich moisture. Mid level trough makes slow
progress across the Plains Thursday into Friday with the southern
extent of this trough drawing an upper low northward across N
Mexico and into far W TX by Saturday. Forcing with the slow moving
trough passage will foster increasing shower and thunderstorm
coverage Thursday through Friday while the aforementioned upper
low lifts northeastward across the region Saturday through Monday.
This pattern evolution coupled with plentiful moisture will
maintain daily shower and thunderstorm chances into early next
week. The overall flow aloft will remain weak and any severe
potential will continue to be isolated and locally heavy rainfall
and flooding concerns will remain the primary concern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Scattered showers are expected to wind down over the next few
hours. A couple of isolated storms remain possible, with heavy
rain and gusty winds being the main impacts. A few additional
showers or storms may occur Wednesday afternoon, but did not
include them in the TAFs as the probability is too low to be
specific at this time. Winds will mostly remain light and out of
the east to southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  68  85  70 /  20  10  30  30
FSM   86  68  87  69 /   0   0  40  10
MLC   88  69  86  71 /  20  10  40  20
BVO   84  64  85  68 /  20  10  30  30
FYV   84  63  84  68 /   0   0  30  10
BYV   80  61  82  65 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   85  67  85  69 /  20  10  30  20
MIO   84  65  85  68 /  10   0  30  20
F10   85  67  84  68 /  20  10  30  20
HHW   86  70  83  70 /  20  10  50  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06