469
FXUS64 KTSA 131711
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1211 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1158 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

 - Unseasonably hot temperatures continue through the upcoming
   work week. Expect heat headlines on multiple days.

 - While much of the region has received rainfall over the past
   few days, the ongoing drought conditions will require much
   more rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will
   continue during periods of stronger winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are coming to an end this afternoon,
with dry weather expected overnight. A surface boundary just to
the south of Interstate 40 will lift north later tonight with
winds veering to the south. Overnight low temperatures will remain
well above normal in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Unseasonably hot temperatures will prevail for much of the
upcoming week. Generally dry weather will prevail the next few
days, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be totally
ruled out with the upper ridge centered just to our east. Recent
rainfall will likely keep northern parts of the forecast area
slightly below 100 degrees most days, with more southern areas
that have seen less rainfall seeing several more days of triple
digit heat. Afternoon heat index values will reach or exceed 105
degrees across much of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas
over the next several days. Increasing south winds Monday and
Tuesday will result in a limited fire weather danger despite
recent rainfall.

The upper ridge will eventually break down by next weekend
allowing a cold front to move across the area. The timing of just
when this occurs remains uncertain, with the latest model data
delaying the arrival of the front somewhat. Increasing rain
chances and cooler temperatures will occur once the front arrives
in a week or so.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with intermittent SCT to BKN mid and
high clouds through the forecast period. Light to moderate southeast
winds this afternoon will become light and varible at most terminals
after sunset this evening. Southerly winds pick up speed by late
morning Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  98  79  98 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   76 103  77 102 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   76 102  78 101 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   70  97  73  97 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   71  98  73  98 /  10  10  10   0
BYV   73  96  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   74 100  75 100 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   73  96  76  97 /  10  10  10   0
F10   76 100  77  99 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   75 101  76 100 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-064>066-
     070-071-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053-
     055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-
     276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220-229.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ129-219-220-
     229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...67