770
FXUS64 KTSA 071615
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1115 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1146 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

 - Headline-worthy heat is expected to persist through the middle
   of the week. Cooler temperatures are expected to close out the
   week.

 - Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
   Monday and Tuesday. Storms may produce locally strong wind
   gusts and brief heavy rainfall.

 - Localized fire weather concerns will exist through Wednesday due
   to the worsening drought.

 - Late week rain/storm chances have also trended upward, with
   confidence increasing that a front will make a good southward
   push into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Weakening convection is occurring across E KS and W MO early
tonight as a shortwave trough navigates around the northeastern
periphery of the upper level ridge. While a stray shower or two
will remain possible in NE OK and NW AR during the overnight
period, mostly dry conditions are favored through Monday morning.
A weak boundary will be draped NW-SE across the FA Monday and
another round of isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms is forecast. Coverage is likely to be less than what
occurred on Sunday as heights will be rising over our area, but
CAMs suggest enough activity to warrant mentionable PoPs. HREF and
REFS probabilities show highest thunder potential across SE OK
and into the higher terrain of NW AR. Similar to Sunday, strong
downburst wind gusts will again be a concern, with a couple
marginally severe gusts not out of question. High temperatures
will be a couple degrees cooler, but maximum heat indices will
still climb to 105-109 degrees for much of the area. Thus, a Heat
Advisory remains in effect from noon until 7 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Upper level ridging moves directly overhead on Tuesday and high
temperatures will hold steady or increase by a degree or two. Heat
headlines are likely. A few showers or storms are possible again,
but overall mostly dry conditions are expected. By Wednesday, the
ridge center will move further east, then flatten, as strong
troughing develops over the Upper Midwest. This will force a cold
front southward toward the CWA during the day. Ahead of the front,
strong heating is likely yet again with highs in the lower 100s
for much of the area. Additional heat headlines are likely as heat
index values remain in the 105-109 range.

Confidence is increasing that the front will then push into our
area Wednesday evening into Thursday with increasing rain/thunder
potential as well as cooling temperatures. Rain chances will
linger into Friday before the front lifts back north with
southerly flow returning. High temperatures Thursday through the
end of the week are now expected to remain below 100 degrees
areawide...though likely still several degrees above average. For
some perspective, the average high in Tulsa this time of year is
87 and average highs for Fayetteville and Fort Smith are 83 and
88, respectively. Model solutions vary more significantly this
weekend into the next, but present potential for one or more
fronts to impact the area. This could bring additional rainfall
and even cooler temperatures as we move into mid September. Summer
has to end sometime...

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with any category
impacts tied to heavier showers/storms that occur on-station.
Diurnal TSRA coverage continues to look lower than yesterday, with
potential for impacts mainly at MLC and the W AR terminals. Will
maintain the existing PROB30 groups at those sites, although will
shrink the potential time windows by an hour or two given CAM
solutions. Winds will generally be less than 10 kts, although
gusty winds and erratic directions will be possible with on-
station storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  101  80 102  81 /   0   0  20   0
FSM  103  75 105  77 /  10  10  20   0
MLC  102  77 103  77 /  10  10  20   0
BVO  102  74 103  75 /   0   0  10   0
FYV  100  71 101  74 /  10  10  20   0
BYV   97  70 100  75 /  10  10  20   0
MKO  101  75 102  75 /   0  10  20   0
MIO  100  75 101  77 /  10  10  20   0
F10  101  76 102  76 /  10  10  20   0
HHW  100  76 100  75 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>071-
     073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-129-
     219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22