200
FXUS64 KTSA 251104
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
604 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today & Tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Upper level ridging begins to slide westward this morning, becoming
increasingly centered over the Four Corners region. This brings NW
flow aloft to our area... gradually becoming more north-south
oriented by late tonight/ Wed morning as the ridge expands northward
and an embedded shortwave passes over the region. At the surface,
lee troughing will maintain S-SW flow through the day with warmer
temps focused W of Hwy 75 in N OK. A frontal boundary in the C
Plains will tend to sag south through the day & this evening before
moving through the CWA late tonight/ tomorrow.

All in all, another hot day is in store for the region with heat
indices again climbing into Advisory territory (105-109 deg) for all
of E OK & NW AR. It appears the heat will be most intense today
along and west of Hwy 75 in N OK and heat indices may even approach
warning criteria here. Coverage of heat indices greater than 110 are
expected to remain isolated enough to preclude warning issuance at
this time... though this will need to be monitored for the morning
update.

Aside from the heat, CAMs/ HREF neighborhood probabilities support
at least 20-30% PoPs across N-Central OK in association with a
subtle vort max. Coverage (and resulting QPF) remains uncertain but
would expect any ongoing storms to move south-southeast and weaken
with time this evening. Additional storm chances arrive later
tonight into Wednesday as the aforementioned shortwave & frontal
boundary move south, with the greatest impacts expected in far E OK
& NW AR. With adequate shear and instability, storms this afternoon
and later tonight into Wednesday may become marginally severe and
produce damaging outflow winds (and perhaps some hail this
afternoon).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Predominantly "chance" PoPs persist for far E OK/ NW AR Wednesday
morning and afternoon to account for any ongoing convection &
redevelopment along the front during the day. Another wave is
forecast to move across C Plains Wednesday night into Thursday with
additional precip chances north and west of our area. Currently do
not expect this activity to impact our CWA, but this will need to be
watched as additional short term guidance becomes available for the
coming forecasts. Otherwise, low PoPs return this weekend as another
frontal boundary attempts to influence the region. Positive height
anomalies expand back into our area next week.

Regarding the heat... opted to issue another Heat Advisory on
Wednesday for parts of E OK and W-Central AR as heat indices are
again forecast to climb between 105-110 degrees. Convection may
complicate things, especially across AR counties, but with heat
indices forecast to approach warning criteria if left undisturbed in
the pre-frontal environment, felt an advisory was appropriate.
Thursday will feature slightly lower heat index values with drier
(and slightly cooler) air behind the front. However the intense heat
returns Friday into the weekend with increasing potential for
additional heat headlines. Above average temps are expected into
next week with highs in the 90s/ lower 100s and lows mainly in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Sfc wind gusts after 15z with 20-25 kts expected at times for all sites except
KFSM and KBVO. Storm chances will increase mainly after 06z for parts of NE OK and
NW AR, however coverage appears too low to include a mention with this issuance.
Otherwise, VFR TAF elements to prevail at all sites through the valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  78  99  74 /  10  30  20   0
FSM   99  78  97  76 /  10  20  50  10
MLC   97  78  97  74 /   0  20  30  10
BVO   99  73  96  69 /  20  30  10   0
FYV   96  72  93  69 /  10  20  50   0
BYV   96  71  91  68 /  10  30  60   0
MKO   96  77  96  73 /  10  20  30  10
MIO   96  73  93  69 /  10  40  30   0
F10   96  76  97  72 /  10  20  20  10
HHW   95  76  96  75 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053>057-
     059>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...23