134
FXUS64 KTSA 311800
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
100 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

 - Widespread triple digit temps with heat indices from 105 to 115
   degrees continue today ahead of a cold front.

 - Scattered storms possible along the front late this afternoon
   and evening. Locally damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

 - A cool front will bring more pleasant weather for the weekend
   into early next week, but the heat will return by the latter
   part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1200 PM AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A lingering band of showers associated with a decaying overnight
MCS will continue to weaken and shift southeastward through
the early afternoon leaving behind clearing skies. Additionally,
deep layer ridging is shifting southwestward today as a notably
strong shortwave trough drops southeastward through the Plains and
into the Mid Mississippi Valley through this afternoon and into
tomorrow. This will drive a cold front through the region later
this afternoon through the overnight hours. Ahead of the front
today, expect another hot and humid day as a strong low level
thermal ridge becomes aligned along the I-44 corridor. Hot low
level temps will likely mix down to the surface, aided by some
drying downslope westerly flow, resulting in widespread triple
digit temperatures by mid afternoon across the region. Some places
could make a run at 105 degrees for highs, especially across
northeast Oklahoma under the thermal ridge axis. The temperatures
combined with relatively high dewpoints will lead to another day
of oppressive heat index values of 110 to 115 degrees or more in
some locations. Therefore, will maintain the current configuration
of heat headlines. Falling temperatures, lower dewpoints, and
gusty northerly winds will filter in behind the passing front by
late afternoon across northeast Oklahoma bringing some relief to
the heat later in the day.

As the front pushes south of the I-44 corridor, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop just ahead of the boundary
during the late afternoon hours within a moderately unstable air
mass. Deep inverted V profiles along with modest deep layer shear signal
a potential for locally strong downbursts to develop within the
stronger, more organized updrafts through the early evening
hours. High mid level moisture content will also promote heavy
rainfall rates which could lead to localized areas of flash
flooding, especially in more urban or low lying environments.
Storms should begin to weaken and move out of the forecast area by
late evening as the front pushes through southeast Oklahoma.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Noticeably cooler and drier air will arrive for the weekend behind
the front, making it feel much more pleasant outside compared to
the past several days. Gusty northerly winds will pick up again
Saturday afternoon as increased flow aloft mixes to the surface
and wraps around the backside of the departing shortwave. Pleasant
conditions for early August continue into the beginning of next
week before temperatures begin to warm again. The upper ridge is
progged to broaden and build back in across much of the southern
United States through the end of next week. A return to near
triple digit heat is likely, though dewpoints look to stay a
little lower than they have been through much of July. Rain
chances look to stay little to none through the rest of the period
after this evening.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Expect VFR conditions outside of storm activity this afternoon and
tonight. Isolated to scattered storms are expected to develop
along a front and could impact KMLC and the NW AR sites late this
afternoon and into the evening. Based on expected coverage and
uncertainty, carried forward prob30 mention at the various sites
in the most favored time windows, ending by 05Z.

The latest short-term guidance shows potential for low clouds
across far NW AR Saturday morning on the back side of a low
pressure system. Inserted tempo MVFR mention at KXNA/KROG/KFYV.

Gusty SW winds ahead of the front will subside and then switch to
the N or NW. Winds will become gusty across NE OK behind the front
through sunset, and will pick up again on Saturday when PBL mixing
commences.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  91  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   74  91  71  93 /  30   0   0   0
MLC   73  91  69  91 /  30   0   0   0
BVO   69  90  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   68  84  65  88 /  40   0   0   0
BYV   67  82  65  86 /  40   0   0   0
MKO   71  89  68  90 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   68  85  66  87 /   0   0   0   0
F10   72  91  68  91 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   76  92  69  91 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-069-172.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>068-
     070-071-073>075-154-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     119-120.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-
     220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30