760
FXUS64 KTSA 300448
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1048 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1041 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

 - Cold and breezy conditions tonight behind a cold front. Wind
chills are expected to be in the teens by daybreak north of I-40.

 - Cold temperatures will persist through Tuesday morning. Light mixed
   wintry precipitation is expected for some areas Monday into
   Monday night. There is a low to medium chance for minor
   impacts, mainly in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR.

 - Temperatures warm somewhat into the middle of next week before
   another potent cold front arrives.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Breezy northerly winds will continue through the night. Low clouds
will gradually thin out leading to clear skies. 925 hPa temps will
fall as low as -8 to -10C, with lows in the 20s across the area
(lowest in the north). These factors will support very low wind
chill values of 10-20 F near dawn.

Some mid and high level clouds will stream into the area during the
afternoon helping to keep temperatures down a bit. AI model guidance
is a bit cooler during the afternoon than conventional NWP guidance.
This is a pattern where models typically warm the surface too
aggressively anyway, so kept MaxT`s a bit below the NBM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A storm system will then approach the area Monday from the west as a
closed low transforms into a positively tilted trough. As the trough
approaches a weak surface low will develop to the west of the area.
A good chunk of the guidance wants to develop light ESE or even
SE flow Monday morning. As a result, low temperatures warm up
fairly substantially in spite of the cold airmass in place, with
low temperatures into Monday morning right near freezing. The rest
of the guidance, including AI guidance, keeps light ENE flow, and
as a result the low temperatures are colder. This is another area
where conventional NWP models are often too quick to reverse the
flow and warm us up. This is especially true given that we will
still have high pressure to the northeast. The forecast was
adjusted with this in mind to keep low temperatures in the mid to
upper 20s in the north and low 30s in the south.

Warm advection is expected to result in areas of rain, sleet, or
freezing drizzle near and southeast of I-44, and north of I-40
Monday morning. Additionally, areas of higher elevation anywhere
in southeast OK will be at risk. Total accumulation will not be
much, but a light glaze will be possible. Travel impacts are not
expected in most locations given the marginal thermal profile, but
isolated slick roadways are possible. As the upper level low
passes by later Monday, some light snow may develop, mainly north
of I-40 and especially in northwest AR. Maintained some minimal
snow accumulation for these areas, but locally up to 1 inch
remains possible. One last surge of cold air is anticipated into
Tuesday morning, with lows in the teens to mid 20s.

A brief warming trend follows, with highs back into the upper 40s to
low 50s by Wednesday. No rain will occur during this period. Another
potent cold front will blast into the area Thursday, with very
chilly air returning. Ensemble guidance has trended wetter for
Friday as warm and moist air moves in aloft. For now, the
majority of guidance says rain would still be favored, but a
subset of guidance shows the potential for wintry precipitation.
Left mostly rain in the forecast, but included some mixed precip
near the KS border where the potential is highest. Warmer and
drier weather begins to return towards next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

MVFR cigs have cleared most of the area except for portions of far
NE OK and NW AR sites. MVFR cigs should scatter out and shift east
by daybreak Sunday with just some scattered to broken high cloud
forecast through the day Sunday. Northerly winds, occasionally
gusting to 20 to 30 mph tonight will lessen by Sunday and become
more NNE by the afternoon. Lower level VFR clouds will stream back
into the region Sunday evening ahead of the next system. VFR
conditions are forecast through the end of this TAF period for all
sites after clouds clear tonight across NW AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  24  35  28 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   54  28  41  29 /  20   0   0  10
MLC   58  26  39  29 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   55  21  34  26 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   51  23  36  25 /  30   0   0  10
BYV   50  23  33  25 /  30   0   0  10
MKO   56  26  37  29 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   52  23  32  25 /   0   0   0  10
F10   58  25  37  28 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   57  28  43  31 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04