832
FXUS64 KTSA 151902
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
202 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2025

  - A few showers and storms are expected in northeast Oklahoma
    and northwest Arkansas into the evening, with a chance of a
    shower or storm in southeast Oklahoma.  This activity will
    diminish tonight.

  - Dry conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday.

  - Heat index values jump into the 90s to near 100 degrees on Tuesday.
    The first days of the season with higher hear stress can be more
    impactful than expected.

  - Another weather system will move through the area and will
    bring increased storms chances from late Tuesday night into
    Wednesday.

  - Summer-like conditions are expected behind the mid-week weather
    system.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The mesoscale vortex born out of the last storm complex has developed
a swirl from the surface through 500 mb. This system is helping to
initiate a swirling pattern of showers in northeast Oklahoma, centered
on the Kansas border.  Outflow and a vorticity lobe aloft are encouraging
an increase in showers and some thunder over western Arkansas. The
western Arkansas activity could develop into southeast Oklahoma, and
some lightning could develop in the northeast Oklahoma activity. The
thought has crossed our minds that a funnel cloud or two is possible
in northeast Oklahoma over the next couple of hours within the core of
the low-pressure system given the deep column of vorticity present.

The upper-level circulation should begins working east as the low-level
center drifts westerly.  This and sunset should result in gradually
decreasing activity later this evening and overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Dry conditions are expected Monday into Tuesday as upper-level
heights rise a little.  The next system is now over the eastern Pacific
and will begin to influence the weather over the central Plains
on Tuesday.  While much of the influence of this system passes
to the north, it appears the southern edge of the faster winds aloft
will come across far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
Arkansas on Wednesday.  As outflow boundaries come into the area
late Tuesday night and the front gets close, thunderstorm chances
will increase.  Depending on the timing of the system, and just
how far south the faster winds aloft are, the severe storm potential
could increase.

Prior to the storms on Wednesday, heat index values on Tuesday will
likely get well into the 90s to near 100 degrees.  It is important
to note that the first days of the summer season with higher heat
and humidity can be more impactful than expected. Summer-like
conditions are expected to develop behind the system on Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

With proximity of upper low/MCV to NW AR terminals left Prob30
there and at KFSM for this afternoon though coverage is expected
to be much less than previous days. Otherwise, uncertainty lies
with the timing of return of low clouds tonight and likelihood of
LIFR fog/stratus at all locations. Confidence is highest across
northeast OK of IFR/LIFR conditions where clearing should allow
stratus development especially given recent widespread rainfall.
Clouds will be slower to clear further east and may prevent fog
from developing, yet deterministic and ensemble guidance is in
agreement on at least IFR conditions developing toward daybreak.
Expect only slow improvement toward MVFR through the late morning
as upper level trough remains overhead and low level flow
continues out of the east to northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  67  88  73 /  60   0   0   0
FSM   84  71  88  72 /  90  40  10   0
MLC   85  69  88  73 /  90  20  10   0
BVO   83  64  88  68 /  40   0   0  10
FYV   81  66  86  68 /  90  30  10   0
BYV   79  66  85  67 /  70  40  10   0
MKO   81  67  86  71 /  90  10   0   0
MIO   79  65  86  68 /  80  10   0   0
F10   82  67  86  71 /  80  10   0   0
HHW   84  70  86  72 /  60  30  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...24