187
FXUS64 KTSA 152311
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
611 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

 - High heat stress conditions continue through the weekend.

 - Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying
   fuels and periods of gusty winds.

 - A weak front will move into the area late Sunday and Monday
   bringing isolated to scattered showers and storms and a minor
   and brief cooldown. Localized strong downburst winds possible.
   Any cooling of temperatures will be minor.

 - Uncertainty increases by late next week with some early signals
   of slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The prolonged heat wave engulfing the area extends into yet
another day, with widespread heat index values in the 105 to 110
range and parts of the area seeing 110 to 115 peak values once
again. Most of northeast Oklahoma and the I-40 corridor have been
upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning through 8 pm today, with the
remainder of the forecast area remaining in a Heat Advisory. The
Heat Advisory will stay in place overnight areawide, with low
temperatures once again expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s
in most spots. Dew point and temperature trends indicate values
in much of the forecast area being at or above yesterdays levels,
with the exception being parts of Osage and Pawnee counties which
are feeling some influence of mid and high cloud cover. Given all
of this, there is increased confidence that heat index values
today will be similar to perhaps locally, just above yesterdays,
justifying the upgrade for today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Hot and increasingly humid conditions remain likely on Sunday,
ahead of a weak cool front that will begin to make its way into
the area late Sunday and into Sunday night. Moisture is expected
to pool along the boundary by the afternoon and along with
temperatures that should be comparable to the last few days, heat
index values should be noticeably higher due to the locally higher
dew points. As such, the same areas that were upgraded to an
Extreme Heat Warning today were also upgraded for tomorrow from
Noon to 8 pm. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain expected
to develop late afternoon and into the evening in the vicinity of
the boundary in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with
greater coverage likely just north and east of the area near a
disturbance. Forecast soundings support a low chance of locally
damaging winds during the afternoon with the stronger storms.

The front will sag southward tomorrow night and into Monday, with
low chances for showers and storms extending roughly to the I-40
corridor Monday afternoon. Noticeably cooler conditions should be
expected for the northern half of the forecast area Monday, with
parts of southeast Oklahoma and the Arkansas River Valley hanging
on the extreme heat. Additional heat headlines will be needed for
some of the forecast area on Monday but with confidence low in the
exact northern cut off for that need, will push that decision
another shift or two in the future.

Very hot weather returns northward for Tuesday, with areawide
heat headlines likely needed into Wednesday. A very low chance of
another round of showers and thunderstorms in far northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas exists Tuesday, although the
better potential remains north of the area. The NBM POPs have been
adjusted upward into the double digits but still below
mentionable.

Late in the week, models continue to show the upper level high
shifting westward, with periods of northwest flow developing
across the area. This would favor cooler temperatures and at least
a brief break in the triple digit heat in much of the area, as
well as shower and thunderstorm chances. Ensemble data do show a
continued wobble in where the high is centered, with occasional
extensions back into our area beyond the end of this forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Near persistent hourly trends expected through Sunday morning.
Winds will then trend more westerly ahead of the weak frontal
boundary and eventually northerly across far NE OK. The boundary
will be a focus for isolated to scattered late afternoon storms
with somewhat higher chances from NE OK into far NW AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83 104  77  96 /   0  20  30  20
FSM   80 104  78 102 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   80 104  77 102 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   77 102  71  95 /   0  20  20  20
FYV   75 100  75  97 /   0  30  20  20
BYV   76 100  74  93 /   0  30  30  20
MKO   78 103  74  97 /   0  30  20  20
MIO   78 101  72  93 /   0  30  30  20
F10   78 104  74  98 /   0  30  20  20
HHW   78 101  76 102 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-059-068-069-
     075-154-172-254-276-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>058-
     060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ055>058-
     060>067-070-071-073-074-176-272-354.

     Heat Advisory until noon CDT Sunday for OKZ055>058-060>067-070-
     071-073-074-176-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
     120-229.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-
     220.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-
     220.

     Heat Advisory until noon CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...07