732
FXUS64 KTSA 301742
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1242 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

 - Shower and storms chances drastically increase west to east
   this afternoon/evening for eastern Oklahoma and late tonight
   into Thursday morning for northwest Arkansas.

 - Several periods of a heavy rain as well as limited severe
   weather potential exists this evening/tonight and Thursday.
   Heavy rain potential tapers off during the day Friday.

 - A cold frontal passage overnight Thursday night will cause
   temperatures to become more fall-like starting Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Southwesterly mid-level flow continues to increase today as a
robust upper-level trough approaches from the southwest. IR/WV
satellite imagery from GOES-19 shows the upper low spinning over
western New Mexico. Positive vorticity advection ahead of the
trough axis is already beginning to tap into the Gulf moisture
that is lifting northward into Oklahoma. Satellite imagery shows a
very apparent dry slot has moved into western Oklahoma, just ahead
of the trough axis and directly behind the remnants of tropical
system Polo. A developing surface low across the High Plains will
cause an enhanced moisture/surface boundary to develop in
western/central Oklahoma later this afternoon. The dry slot will
help promote the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop well ahead of these surface features this
afternoon, with storm initiation across central Oklahoma. Hi-res
models show these storms moving into eastern Oklahoma by late this
afternoon or early this evening, but do not have them lasting too
long before dissipating or moving out of the area.

Precipitation coverage and intensity will increase late this
evening and into the overnight period as a 30-40 knot low-level
jet ramps up forcing over the region. As the low-level jet begins
to get going early this evening, recent hi-res models show a
secondary wave/line/cluster of storms developing along the
surface boundary in western Oklahoma. These storms are forecast
to move into eastern Oklahoma late/overnight tonight and into
western Arkansas around daybreak Thursday. There is a limited
potential for severe thunderstorms with this cluster of storms
overnight, especially for central and western areas of the
forecast area tonight. Because forcing and instability decreases
from west to east, the line/broken line of storms should be
weakening as the storms move into western Arkansas. Locally
damaging wind gusts are the primary severe threat, though there
remains a non-zero potential for a quick tornado or two along the
leading line. In addition to the severe potential, an abundance of
deep tropical moisture, with PWATs approaching 1.75 to 2.0
inches, will create a heavy rain threat through the night and into
Thursday morning, which could lead to localized flooding
conditions.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
Thursday morning, with the line/broken line gradually
deteriorating and sliding east of the forecast area by mid
afternoon. As the upper low lifts northeastward into southwest
Kansas Thursday afternoon, the aforementioned mid-level dry slot
will move over eastern Oklahoma. Hi-res CAMs are in agreement
that the dry slot, along with an approaching cold front from the
north, will contribute to destabilization and production of
showers and thunderstorms along and just ahead of the frontal
boundary in eastern Oklahoma during the mid to late afternoon
timeframe. Severe, damaging wind gusts and heavy rain will be the
primary severe threats, but there might be enough dry air aloft
and low- level wind shear for isolated marginally severe hail and
a quick spin up tornado or two, respectively.

As the upper low continues to lift northeastward into the
Central/Northern Plains Thursday evening into the overnight hours
Thursday night, it will help push a cold front into the forecast
area. The heavy rainfall axis Thursday night into Friday morning
looks to set up south and east of I-44, ahead of the approaching
front. The front gradually pushes south of the area by late Friday
afternoon/early evening, with precipitation chances decreasing
from north to south behind it. The upper-level trough axis will
stick around and hover over the area through at least Saturday,
maintaining low to medium rain (with isolated thunder) chances
(20-50%). As the trough axis finally departs Saturday night into
Sunday morning, a weak upper-level low, centered over central
Texas, may keep light shower chances across southeast Oklahoma
through the day on Sunday, as well. Rainfall amounts stay light on
Saturday and Sunday, especially compared to rainfall amounts over
the next couple of days.

Total rainfall amounts through the upcoming weekend could vary
greatly across the forecast area. In general, amounts 1 to 3
inches will be common for most locations. However, consistent
banding and training, along with the significantly heavier
downpours, will likely cause isolated footprints of 5 inches or
greater in spots. On the flip side, it is possible a few areas
may not even reach an inch of rain. The heaviest rainfall is still
currently forecast to occur late tonight through Friday morning.
Widespread nuisance/minor flooding is likely, with isolated flash
flooding possible at times. The greater flooding potential remains
over east central and southeast Oklahoma.

Behind the cold front, temperatures are finally forecast to
become and remain cooler than average through the majority of the
long-term. Anticipate daytime high temperatures ranging from the
mid to upper 70s and overnight low temperatures generally from the
low to mid 50s to lower 60s through the rest of the week into
next week.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Scattered low clouds and considerable mid and high level ceilings will
start the TAF period but conditions deteriorate quickly this
evening across the Oklahoma terminals as the first round of
widespread showers and storms move through around or shortly after
00Z. There is uncertainty with how much this activity will hold
together as it moves into northwest Arkansas so delayed showers
and VFR ceilings there until after midnight as stronger forcing
approaches. Occasional showers are expected after the first round
of stronger activity with flight conditions dropping to at least
MVFR overnight at all terminals except KFSM where they will be
delayed. We can`t rule out IFR conditions toward daybreak in
northeast Oklahoma as convective dry slot works into the area
allowing deep moisture saturate closer to surface but confidence
is too low to mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  77  64  72 /  90  90  70  30
FSM   75  84  70  80 /  10  70  80  80
MLC   70  81  65  80 /  80  90  70  50
BVO   66  77  61  71 / 100  90  60  20
FYV   69  80  63  76 /  10  70  80  60
BYV   72  82  66  74 /  10  70  80  80
MKO   68  79  65  76 /  70  90  70  50
MIO   69  76  63  71 /  60  80  70  20
F10   67  79  63  75 /  90  90  60  50
HHW   72  81  68  81 /  50  90  70  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...24