042
FXUS64 KTSA 021733
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

 - Cold front passes Wed. night - Thursday with a chance of
   showers and storms.

 - A stronger cold front passes on Friday with temps well below
   normal by the weekend. Showers and storms Friday through Friday
   night with a clearing trend on Saturday.

 - Daily rain chances continue into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Scattered showers and isolated storms are expected this afternoon
through early evening ahead of vorticity max currently over south
central KS. This feature moves southeastward and remains across
the forecast area overnight so there could be precip linger into
the overnight hours though most guidance diminishes coverage after
sunset. Patchy fog may develop should skies clear sufficiently
and locally dense visibilities could be in place for the morning
commute.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Dry and warm conditions expected on Wednesday ahead of the next
cold front which passes Wednesday night into Thursday. A corridor
of showers and storms are likely to develop across south central
Plains by late afternoon and spread east southeast through the
evening. Pre frontal instability will quickly wane after sunset
and storms are likely to be on a weakening trend as they spread
into portions northeast Oklahoma during the evening. A short
window may remain for a few stronger storms but widespread severe
weather is unlikely.

A brief dry period expected on Thursday ahead of a stronger cold
front which moves into the region on Friday and clears the
forecast area early Saturday. A notable temp gradient is
expected on Friday across the region with temps ranging from the
mid 70s to lower 90s. Showers and storms likely develop along the
boundary by late afternoon or evening and expand in coverage
during the evening into overnight hours. Current timing has a
clearing trend from north to south during the day Saturday.

Post frontal temps well below normal are forecast to persist into
early next week. Forecast uncertainty increases by early next week
especially with regards to precip chances and potential heavy
rainfall. Temps at or below normal and daily rain chances do
appear likely to continue well into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Mostly VFR conditions expected through the afternoon and evening
hours. Some scattered MVFR cigs are noted across NE OK sites, but
should gradually lift over the next hour or two. Widely scattered
showers will continue through the afternoon with low to medium
chances (20-40%) of any showers impacting any one TAF site through
about 00Z. Brief downpours will reduce visibility to MVFR or IFR
levels and cigs will likely be reduced to MVFR during any heavier
showers. KMLC has the highest chances in the short term with
prob30s covering other sites. Additionally, fog will be possible
late tonight/tomorrow morning, especially across NW AR sites and
for KBVO. Otherwise, generally light winds will prevail with
clearing skies tonight through tomorrow morning.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  86  65  83 /  10   0  20   0
FSM   68  88  67  90 /  20   0  10   0
MLC   64  85  65  87 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   58  85  60  81 /  10   0  30   0
FYV   60  85  62  84 /  20   0  20   0
BYV   61  85  62  82 /  20   0  30   0
MKO   64  85  64  85 /  20   0  10   0
MIO   60  84  61  82 /  20   0  40   0
F10   62  84  63  85 /  10   0  10   0
HHW   66  84  64  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04