334
FXUS64 KTSA 091115
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
615 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

 - Hot temperatures are expected this weekend into next week with
   a Heat Advisory for portions of eastern Oklahoma, northwest and
   west-central Arkansas Sunday. Additional heat headlines are
   likely in the coming days.

 - Dry weather is expected Sunday through at least the middle of
   the upcoming week.

 - Low rain and storm chances return across the far north near the
   Kansas and Missouri borders late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A ridge of high pressure aloft will continue to dominate the
weather across the region for the time being. Observational trends
from this afternoon suggest that dewpoints are not mixing out
quite as low as the model blend would suggest in some areas. Used
a blend that brought the values closer to the 75th %ile of the
spread. Forecast highs Sunday should be pretty close to the
readings today. Forecast heat indices warrant expanding the going
Heat Advisory some, encompassing most of eastern OK and west-
central AR as well as a portion of far northwest Arkansas. A few
locals could briefly touch 110+ warning levels. An expanding lee
trough over the High Plains to our northwest will bring an
increased south wind today with some gusts. This could aid in
lowering dewpoints by mixing.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

The ridge aloft will continue to maintain hot and dry weather
through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Triple digit or
near triple digit heat will continue daily, and more headlines are
likely. The ridge weakens a bit late in the week and a boundary
will approach. The latest model blend forecast has some low PoPs
near the KS and MO borders. The ensemble means suggest that the
best rain/storm chances would be Thursday night through Friday
night. The heat may dial back a bit as well. If we do not get
rain late week, models/ensembles rebuild the ridge over the south-
central CONUS next weekend into the following week. A return to
hot and dry weather is looking probable.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Skies will remain
mostly clear outside of some scattered afternoon cumulus for some
sites. Winds will continue out of the south with gusts around 20
knots possible from late morning through early evening.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  102  81 102  81 /   0   0   0   0
FSM  100  77 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
MLC  100  77  99  78 /   0   0   0   0
BVO  103  76 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   97  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   97  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   99  76  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   99  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
F10  101  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-
     354.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04