840
FXUS64 KTSA 251800
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
100 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

 - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight through
   Saturday primarily north of Interstate 40.

 - Rain chances expand in coverage Saturday night through Sunday
   with overall rainfall amounts remaining light. Above normal
   temperatures continue through the weekend.

 - Uncertainty increases for mid week storm system but overall
   pattern would favor increasing rain chances with potential for
   meaningful rainfall amounts over a larger area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Rain chances through much of tonight remain in a similar corridor
as has been observed through the day primarily favoring west of
the Highway 75 corridor across NE OK. Increasing cloud cover and
higher dewpoints spreading eastward will keep overnight lows mild.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Scattered showers and isolated storms are expected to be ongoing
across NE OK Saturday morning with a slow expansion eastward
through early afternoon. Most guidance favors a decrease in precip
coverage through Saturday afternoon before showers and storms
develop again Saturday evening and spread east and southeastward
through the day Sunday. Higher precip chances will continue north
of Interstate 40 through the day Saturday with a more broad
rainfall footprint Saturday night into Sunday. Overall precip
amounts are forecast to remain light with little to no impact to
the ongoing drought conditions. The extent and duration of the
thicker cloud cover will influence temperatures on both Saturday
and Sunday, however expect temperatures remaining above seasonal
normals through the weekend.

Upper ridge axis remains centered through the forecast area on
Monday with very low rain chances and above normal temperatures
continuing. The pattern transitions on Tuesday as a stronger mid
level trough moves into the southwest CONUS and interacts with the
remnants of tropical system Polo. Uncertainty increases
substantially regarding the evolution of the resultant storm
system with both timing and resultant weather impacts both in
question. The general pattern of favorably, and possibly
prolonged, synoptic scale lift interacting with a plume of deep
mid level tropical moisture does favor high precip chances ahead
of the advance mid level trough. Expect precip chances for mid to
late next week to trend higher as confidence in timing and storm
track increases. Heavy rain and possibly some severe weather
potential may develop pending the overall storm system evolution.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Largely persistent VFR conditions will prevail through today and
into tonight, with a steady stream of mostly high clouds and light
southeasterly winds. A cluster of showers and potential
thunderstorms could impact NE OK terminals Saturday morning with
some reduction in visibility the main aviation impact along with
lightning. Winds will also come around to be more southerly and
increase to around 10 knots across E OK sites tomorrow morning.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  86  68  89 /  10  40  60  40
FSM   67  91  70  93 /   0   0  20  30
MLC   68  92  69  95 /   0  10  30  40
BVO   66  83  65  86 /  20  60  60  40
FYV   62  87  65  88 /   0  10  30  40
BYV   65  85  66  86 /   0   0  30  40
MKO   66  88  67  90 /   0  20  40  50
MIO   67  82  67  84 /   0  20  60  30
F10   66  89  66  92 /  10  20  50  50
HHW   67  92  67  95 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04