919
FXUS64 KTSA 160541
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1241 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2025

  - A few showers and storms are expected in northeast Oklahoma
    and northwest Arkansas into the evening, with a chance of a
    shower or storm in southeast Oklahoma.  This activity will
    diminish tonight.

  - Dry conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday.

  - Heat index values jump into the 90s to near 100 degrees on Tuesday.
    The first days of the season with higher hear stress can be more
    impactful than expected.

  - Another weather system will move through the area and will
    bring increased storms chances from late Tuesday night into
    Wednesday.

  - Summer-like conditions are expected behind the mid-week weather
    system.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 814 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Scattered showers continue to feed over parts of northeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas as a remnant mesoscale vortex spins
over the region. An isolated thunderstorm remains possible over
the next few hours, though meager instability and weak wind shear
over the area will limit much in the way of thunder through
tonight. Still, scattered showers will likely continue in close
proximity to the MCV as it broadens and weakens through the
evening. Otherwise, clearing skies and light winds in association
with the saturated ground will lead to some patchy fog formation
areawide tonight, with greater coverage expected across portions
of western Arkansas where temperatures remained in the 70s this
afternoon. A mostly quiet night is in store for a change as a lull
in the active weather pattern will settle over the region in the
near term at least. Seasonably mild overnight lows expected
tonight with most locations bottoming out in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees. For the update this evening... incorporated
the latest trends to update PoPs/Thunder chances and introduce
patchy fog for the whole area tonight. Otherwise, the going
forecast is in good shape.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Dry conditions are expected Monday into Tuesday as upper-level
heights rise a little.  The next system is now over the eastern Pacific
and will begin to influence the weather over the central Plains
on Tuesday.  While much of the influence of this system passes
to the north, it appears the southern edge of the faster winds aloft
will come across far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
Arkansas on Wednesday.  As outflow boundaries come into the area
late Tuesday night and the front gets close, thunderstorm chances
will increase.  Depending on the timing of the system, and just
how far south the faster winds aloft are, the severe storm potential
could increase.

Prior to the storms on Wednesday, heat index values on Tuesday will
likely get well into the 90s to near 100 degrees.  It is important
to note that the first days of the summer season with higher heat
and humidity can be more impactful than expected. Summer-like
conditions are expected to develop behind the system on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Low clouds and fog are expected to develop overnight and persist
into Monday morning, with IFR or lower conditions expected at most
sites. Conditions will improve after mid morning Monday, with VFR
conditions returning by afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  73  93  76 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   88  72  94  76 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   88  73  92  76 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   88  68  92  73 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   86  68  90  73 /  10   0  10  10
BYV   85  67  90  73 /  10   0  10  10
MKO   86  71  91  76 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   86  68  90  73 /   0   0  10  20
F10   86  71  91  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   86  72  89  75 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...05