710
FXUS64 KTSA 171855
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
155 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

 - Very hot conditions through Wednesday followed by some slight cooling,
   but temperatures will remain above average into the weekend.

 - A few isolated showers may occur at times this week,
   particularly Wednesday to Thursday, but overall dry weather
   will continue.

 - Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying
   fuels and periods of gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A cluster of strong storms blew through portions of northeast OK and
west-central AR this morning, but mostly dry conditions are now
expected for the remainder of the day. The best chance of a few
isolated showers and storms will be in the higher terrain of
southeast OK this afternoon. Temperatures will rise to the mid 90s
to low 100s, highest to the south. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect for southeast OK into west-central AR.

Overnight tonight, conditions will be quiet for most areas. There
is a signal in the CAMs for a few weak and isolated showers and
storms in the higher terrain of northwest AR, but these are not
expected to result in significant impacts. Low temperatures will
be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The upper level ridge will strengthen with increasing temperatures
Tuesday. Most areas will reach 100-107 F, which is well above
normal. Recent dry conditions will mean humidity will be a more
modest factor. However, the areas that saw rainfall today are
likely to hold onto somewhat higher dew points, so perhaps in
these areas we will trade a few degrees off the high in exchange
for higher heat indices. Went ahead and issued an Extreme Heat
Warning for most of eastern OK and west-central AR, with a Heat
Advisory for the other areas. These products continue through
Wednesday, which is expected to be similarly hot to perhaps 1-2 F
warmer. Heat indices will peak at or above 110 F within the
warning with overnight lows in the mid 70s to low 80s.

A weak boundary will take the edge off of the heat Thursday, with
highs dropped into the mid 90s to low 100s. This will occur as the
upper ridge nudges westward a bit. Guidance suggests a few isolated
showers and storms could develop near and north of the boundary.
Then Friday into the weekend it looks like a resumption of hot,
mostly dry, and somewhat breezy conditions. Fire weather potential
will continue to gradually increase as most areas will see little to
no rain during the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Cluster of strong storms has mostly exited the area, though some
lingering ceilings around 4kft will linger across parts of
northwest AR for a short time. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail, with isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms
possible cross mainly southeast OK this afternoon. Wind influence
from earlier storms will wane this afternoon, generally trending
light northerly into the evening, with winds becoming southerly
mid-morning Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  75 104  83 /  70  10  10   0
FSM  102  76 105  79 /  70  10  10   0
MLC  100  75 107  81 /  10  10  20   0
BVO   94  69 105  77 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   95  70 102  78 /  40  20  10   0
BYV   93  69 100  78 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   97  73 105  78 /  80  10  10   0
MIO   93  70 101  77 /  20   0   0   0
F10   97  73 106  79 /  20  10  20   0
HHW  102  74 104  79 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ058-
     063-068-069-172.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-070-071-
     073>075-172-176-272-276-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for
     OKZ049-053-055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-176-
     254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ001-
     002-010-011-119-120.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ119-120-129-219-
     220-229.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for
     ARZ129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14