074
FXUS64 KTSA 120517
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1217 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

 - Oppressively hot and dry weather will persist through the
   work week and into the upcoming weekend.

 - Rain chances are unlikely through the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Wednesday is anticipated to be almost a carbon copy of Tuesday...
hot, humid, rain-free, and breezy in the afternoon. A deepening
trough along the West Coast has already began shoving the upper-
level ridge, that was situated over the Desert Southwest,
eastward. The ridge axis will drift overhead and flatten during
the afternoon hours before shifting east of the area late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Closer to the surface, lee
troughing will persist, peaking during the mid-late afternoon
hours and resulting in breezy southerly winds with occasional
gusts 25-30 mph, strongest across northeast OK. Afternoon high
temperatures on Wednesday will max out in the upper 90s and lower
100s again, with heat indices climbing between 105 to 110 F. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for all counties and forecast
zones across eastern OK and northwest AR through the entire short-
term period.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

A hot and humid, persistent forecast will be the main takeaway
through at least the remainder of the workweek, perhaps even
beyond. Expect daily afternoon temperatures maxing out in the
upper 90s and lower 100s, with heat indices hovering between 105
and 110 F, each afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for
the entire forecast area from now through 8 PM Friday.

The incessant ridge will hold steady over the
southern/southeastern CONUS through the remainder of the week and
into this upcoming weekend, keeping the jet stream and any
significant rain chances well north of the area through the long-
term. The ridge will gradually restrengthen over the
Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys, with models showing a 598-600
decameter ridge by Friday evening/night. Guidance then shows the
center of the ridge retrograding westward and overhead late in
the weekend and into early next week. In theory, this would likely
be some of the hottest days of the year, but this will also be
highly dependent on exact position and strength of the ridge as it
moves overhead. Medium-range models continue suggesting a weak
quasi-stationary frontal boundary, that will be draped across the
Central Plains late in the week, will sag south and push into far
northeast OK late Sunday night and into Monday morning, with the
front pushing farther south through the day Monday. However,
trends in the forecast models over the last few days of this front
have been unreliable and inconsistent. Will have better details
and a better grasp of how this evolves by the end of the week. For
now, the oppressive heat looks to continue through the long-term
period.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Southerly winds will continue through the TAF period, with
stronger speeds during the daytime hours with gusts to 15-25 kts.
Skies will be mostly clear except for a few high clouds and some
diurnal cumulus in the 6-8 kft layer. Low level shear will be
present across northeast OK tonight and again Wednesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  103  83 103  83 /   0   0   0   0
FSM  103  80 102  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLC  102  81 101  80 /   0   0   0   0
BVO  104  79 104  79 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   99  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   99  78  99  78 /   0   0   0   0
MKO  101  79 101  78 /   0   0   0   0
MIO  101  80 101  80 /   0   0   0   0
F10  102  79 102  79 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   98  79  97  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053-055>071-
     073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
     120-129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...06