520
FXUS64 KTSA 170157
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
857 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Latest water vapor imagery shows the forecast area sandwiched in-
between mid/upper-level ridging along the eastern CONUS and a
deepening trough over the Pacific NW/Great Basin regions. A few
diurnally-driven showers tried developing across portions of
northwest AR earlier this afternoon/evening. However, despite the
very warm temperatures, with very weak forcing in the low/mid-
levels, they were unable to sustain themselves more than just a
few minutes. With the sun setting, the existing low precipitation
chances will diminish completely over the next hour or sooner and
the remainder of the evening will remain rain-free.

Overall, the forecast for the remainder of the night remains on
track, with very little changes made from the afternoon forecast
package. Another abnormally warm night is expected with low
temperatures bottoming out in the low-mid 70s.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Several of the CAMS suggest a broken line of showers/thunderstorms
will begin to propagate northward from the Gulf during the day
Monday. There is a slight chance (20 percent) some of this
activity could move into far southeast Oklahoma by late afternoon
or early evening, but more likely will begin to dissipate.
Regardless, increasing low level moisture, coupled with strong
afternoon heating, may allow for a few isolated storms to develop
across far SE OK/NW AR. Overall coverage again will likely remain
limited. High temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal
with heat indices approaching triple digits in some locations.

Slightly cooler conditions are expected during the Tuesday-Thursday
time frame as winds become more easterly. Increasing high clouds
are also expected from tropical system, which is forecast to move
westward across south Texas. Rain chances will remain low, and
again be confined to far southeast Oklahoma on Wednesday.

Warming trend returns late week into the early part of next weekend
as upper ridge builds back over the southern Plains. A weak frontal
boundary may approach from the north on Sunday and therefore kept
slight chance NBM PoPs for NE OK/NW AR.

Parts of northeast Oklahoma have received little rainfall over the
past two weeks and with no significant rain forecast through the
extended period and potentially beyond, abnormally dry conditions
may become a concern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South
winds will gust over 20 knots at times at the northeast Oklahoma
and far northwest Arkansas sites during the day Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  93  75  91 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   75  92  75  90 /  10  20   0  20
MLC   73  90  73  89 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   71  93  73  91 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   71  89  70  87 /   0  20   0  20
BYV   72  90  71  88 /  10  20   0  20
MKO   73  90  74  89 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   73  91  73  89 /   0  10   0   0
F10   73  90  73  89 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   73  88  71  87 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...05