783
FXUS64 KTSA 290507
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1207 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1130 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

 - Well above average high temperatures and predominantly dry
   weather will continue on Thursday.

 - Rain chances increase beginning early Friday morning through
   much of Saturday.

 - The potential for an impactful storm system early next week
   continues to increase, but specifics remain uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Southwesterly flow aloft continues across the region tonight
ahead of a broad western CONUS trough. At the surface, a
relatively tight pressure gradient will keep southerly winds
elevated around 10 mph overnight. Mid and high level clouds will
begin to increase from south to north through the overnight period
and through the morning Thursday. With steady low-level moisture
advection in place, cannot completely rule out some patchy low-
stratus formation toward daybreak Thursday, especially across
portions of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Between the
persistent breeze and increasing cloud cover, overnight lows will
remain quite mild, settling in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

During the daytime Thursday, mid and high level clouds will
continue to spread into the area from the south as the moisture-
rich shortwave trough moves across northwest Mexico. Despite the
increasing high clouds, dry weather will prevail and temperatures
will top out in the lower to middle 80s, roughly 15 degrees above
seasonal averages. Finally, southerly winds wont be quite as
breezy Thursday as surface low pressure slides across the Great
Lakes Region and eases the pressure gradient locally. Wind
speeds/gusts are expected to be light enough that fire weather
concerns remain minimal.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Moisture advection increases Thursday night as an initial
shortwave trough ejects from northern Mexico into the Southern
Plains. The NBM brings a sharp gradient of PoPs (20-80%), mostly
confined to the northwest quadrant of the CWA by early Friday
morning. Consensus in model data have slowed the eastern progress
of the rain, keeping the majority of far eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas practically rain-free through much of the day
Friday. Rain chances will gradually become more widespread and are
still expected to peak overnight Friday night into Saturday
afternoon (PoPs 40-60%) as synoptic lift spreads over the CWA
ahead of the slowly advancing mid-level wave. As the shortwave
trough axis finally passes east of the area Saturday afternoon,
rain chances will steadily end west-to-east. Ensemble and
deterministic guidance both show very limited instability, which
should keep thunder chances low through this particular storm
event. Rainfall totals will stay generally light, ranging from a
few hundredths of an inch to around a quarter of an inch. However,
a few isolated areas may have slightly higher totals, closer to
half an inch, especially north of I-44 and west of Highway 75 in
northeast Oklahoma.

A brief break in rain chances looks probable on Sunday as the
shortwave lifts northeast toward the Great Lakes, resulting in dry
and mild weather. Focus then turns to a significantly deeper
trough/cut-off low that will dig across the western and central
CONUS Monday through Wednesday. Overall, there is good agreement
in models in showing impactful weather resulting from this system.
Global deterministic models alongside AI/machine-learning suites
depict strong run-to-run consistency on a potent cold front
pushing through the Southern Plains, but continue to differ on
the exact timing on its passage. While timing and spatial details
still carry high ensemble spread, higher rain and storm chances
(NBM PoPs 50-70%) are expected to precede the boundary on Monday
and Tuesday, followed by a noticeable post-frontal cool down
toward more seasonal values (highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s)
by next Wednesday. Continue to check back for updates as forecast
specifics are refined.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail, with increasing cloud through the
period. A front will approach from the north but will likely stall
near the state lines. Shower and storm development should stay
north of any TAF sites tomorrow afternoon. A few showers are
possible in the warm advection regime across our area, but chances
are too low to mention in any TAF. South winds should be lighter
on Thursday compared to Wednesday.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  85  62  76 /   0   0  10  40
FSM   59  86  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  83  61  74 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   56  84  57  76 /   0   0  10  40
FYV   55  83  56  77 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   59  82  59  77 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   59  84  61  75 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   59  82  60  77 /   0   0   0  10
F10   60  84  61  75 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   62  83  63  75 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30