823
FXUS64 KTSA 310402
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1102 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1102 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

 - An extended period of hot and dry weather will persist through the
   next week. Heat headlines are expected at times.

 - Rain chances look very low through the forecast period.

 - The ongoing drought situation will continue to worsen.
   Localized fire weather concerns will develop each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Weather conditions on Monday will be almost a carbon copy of
Sunday...above average temperatures and slightly breezy afternoon
winds. The subtropical ridge axis will shift eastward over the
Mid Mississippi Valley by the afternoon. Despite this, the ridge
will still remain the primary influence of sensible conditions for
the area. As such, anticipate triple digit temperatures for most
locations again Monday afternoon, warmest temperatures along and
west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma and through the Arkansas
River Valley. Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of
northeast OK and west-central AR from noon until 8 PM Monday.
Although the surface pressure gradient does not look quite as
strong on Monday, wind speeds and gusts will be strong enough for
at least some fire weather concerns, especially for portions of
northeast OK and far northwest AR where winds will be breeziest
during peak heating hours. Precipitation chances remain near zero.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The sweltering heat and rain-free weather will persist through at
least mid week, with both global models and ensembles keeping
upper-level ridging the main weather influence for the area.
Expect daily high temperatures generally in the upper 90s and
lower 100s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s most nights
through next weekend. And although afternoon minimum relative
humidity values wont be quite as low as late winter or early
spring numbers, the growing drought and drying fuels will cause at
least some fire weather concerns each day through the long-term
period.

Deterministic model solutions and ensembles begin to diverge by
the end of the week and into the Labor Day weekend. It still looks
like the ridge will be the main influence to our weather, but the
position and strength of the ridge is uncertain at this time.
Deterministic GFS shows the ridge flattening out and migrating
eastward over the Southeast CONUS. Meanwhile the ECMWF suggests
ridging strengthens over the Plains this weekend, maintaining
oppressively hot temperatures and keeping things rain-free. If the
GFS solution were to pan out, there could be low chances of
diurnally-driven showers and storms that develop on periphery of
the ridge, specifically the southeastern half of forecast area
late in the week and next weekend. It is a wait and see for now.
The overall forecast confidence of rainfall through the long-term
remains low.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Near persistent daily trends are expected with VFR conditions area
wide through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78 102  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   74 103  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   77 102  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   75 102  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   74 101  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   74  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   74 101  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   76 100  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
F10   75 101  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75 101  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ055-056-
     060>062-067-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...07