096
FXUS64 KTSA 030540
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1140 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1137 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

 - Widespread storms spreading west to east through early Tuesday
   morning with severe weather and locally heavy rain impacts.

 - Temperatures nearer to seasonal averages mid week into the
   weekend.

 - Low rain chances late week and then mostly dry weather is
   forecast for the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1034 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Late Monday evening, area of low pressure was centered over far
northwest Oklahoma with a cold front extending southwest in far
western Oklahoma into west Texas. Ahead of the cold front, broken
lines of convection from northeast to south central Oklahoma were
occurring along the western periphery of the deep layer moisture
plume. Moderate instability along with deep layer shear values
were aiding in strong storms with the potential to become severe
across northeast Oklahoma. Farther south, greater instability was
helping to increase severe potentials.

Ahead of the convection, indications continue to highlight a
plume of higher instability, 0-1km storm relative helicity values
of 350-450+ m2/s2, and surface winds backed out of the southeast
mainly along and east of Nowata county to Wagoner county to
Choctaw county into northwest Arkansas. As convection moves into
this more unstable atmosphere late Monday night/early Tuesday
morning, an uptick in severe potentials could develop with
damaging wind, hail, and also a potential for quick spin-up QLCS
tornadoes. A tornado watch remains in effect through 09z over
eastern Oklahoma and most of northwest Arkansas. Severe potentials
remain into early Tuesday morning and then should weaken after
sunrise.

Majority of the convection is expected to be exiting northwest
Arkansas in the 13-16z time frame as the cold front and low
pressure system continue their eastward momentum. Behind the
exiting storms and the frontal boundary, surface winds shift out
of the west and then northwest on the backside of the departing
mid/upper level trof axis. As the backside of the storm system
moves through and out of the CWA, light rain could develop across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday
afternoon/evening. This activity looks to exit with the trof
during the evening hours Tuesday.

Temperatures during the day Tuesday look to remain in the 50/60s.
There is a short potential for a window between the exiting precip
and the backside of the wave moving into the region that could
allow for a warm up to mid/upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1034 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Cloud cover begins to scatter out Tuesday night and Wednesday with
westerly winds and afternoon temperatures in the 60s/low 70s
Wednesday afternoon.

Another shortwave is progged to drop southeast into the region
Wednesday night and Thursday with a weak cold front into the CWA.
Weak southerly low level winds return just ahead of this
disturbance, which will allow for a window of moisture advection
back into the CWA Thursday. In response, low rain chances return
across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Thursday. Latest
model solutions show this shortwave exiting Thursday night. In the
wake of this wave, more seasonal average temperatures are
anticipated Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A line of showers and storms will continue to move across the area
impacting all terminals between now and 12Z. Mainly MVFR ceilings
will prevail for much of the forecast period except at KMLC and
KFSM where low end VFR conditions may prevail at times. Gusty
south winds will shift to southwest Tuesday morning and then west
to northwest by late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  68  48  70 /  90  20   0   0
FSM   66  73  51  72 /  90  50  10   0
MLC   58  69  47  71 / 100  10   0   0
BVO   56  67  44  67 /  90  20   0   0
FYV   62  69  44  68 / 100  60  20   0
BYV   64  69  49  66 /  90  80  20   0
MKO   59  69  47  70 / 100  10  10   0
MIO   61  67  47  66 / 100  20  10   0
F10   56  68  47  71 /  90  10   0   0
HHW   63  72  50  72 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...05