Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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892
FNUS74 KTSA 232241
FWSTSA
Spot Forecast for Dry Run WF...USFS
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
541 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 CDT on August 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact NWS Tulsa at (918)838-7838, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
The wind forecast for the next few hours is low confidence,
particularly when it comes to the direction. In general, variable
direction should be expected, with speeds around 5 mph through
about 10 pm tonight. Thereafter, a south to southeasterly wind
direction will be maintained into at least Monday night into early
Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase after
midnight tonight, with the most likely timing at the burn site
between 3 am and 9 am Monday. A low chance of redevelopment mid
to late afternoon Monday exists, continuing into Monday evening. A
low chance of downburst winds that could lead to sudden increase
in wind speeds and shifting directions will accompany any
thunderstorms both late tonight and again Monday afternoon. Very
hot conditions with relative humidities in the 25 to 35 percent
range should be expected both Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Overnight humidities are expected to recover to near 80 percent
tonight and again Monday night.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms after 3 am.
Min temperature.....Around 76.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Dewpoint............68.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the southeast
in the late evening and overnight. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after
3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (30163 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (4590 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).93.
Eye level winds.....East winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the southeast
in the late evening and overnight.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........35 31 27 31 35 36 35 21 25 41 42 46
Weather cov..... SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH
Temp............97 93 90 87 84 82 81 80 80 79 78 78
Dewpoint........68 68 68 68 68 68 69 69 69 69 69 69
RH..............39 44 49 54 59 63 67 69 69 72 74 74
20 FT wind dir..NE E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
20 FT wind gust.7 8 10 10 11 12 11 11 12 13 14 14
Eye lvl wnd dir.NE E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
Eye lvl wnd gst.7 8 10 10 11 12 11 11 12 13 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...5.9 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SE E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S
Transp wind spd.5 7 8 10 10 10 10 12 10 12 12 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..30 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 5
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
1700FT Mix T(F).96 96 95 94 93 92 92 91 91 91 91 91
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming
sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms early in the morning. Slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 100.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Dewpoint............68.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 7 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4590 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (57704 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).88.
Eye level winds.....South winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph late
in the afternoon.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........51 62 52 74 60 55 44 40 50 55 17 21
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............78 76 78 80 82 85 88 91 95 97 98 100
Dewpoint........69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 68 68
RH..............74 79 74 69 65 59 54 49 43 40 38 36
20 FT wind dir..SE SE S SE SE SE SE S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.14 14 13 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 16
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE SE S SE SE SE SE S S S S S
Eye lvl wnd spd.6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Eye lvl wnd gst.14 14 13 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.0 3.1
Transp wind dir.SE S S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 15 16 16 14
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 26 26 26 26 26 26 58 58 58 58 58
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR
1700FT Mix T(F).90 90 90 90 89 88 86 86 86 88 89 91
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Dewpoint............69.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the
southeast 6 to 8 mph with gusts to around 17
mph in the late evening and overnight. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
early in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 13 mph shifting to the southeast 8
to 12 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (57704 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (5901 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).91.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the 5 to
7 mph with gusts to around 17 mph in the late
evening and overnight.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........21 25 23 29 22 28 32 29 47 58 62 65
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............98 95 93 88 86 84 82 81 80 79 78 77
Dewpoint........68 68 69 69 70 70 70 69 69 69 69 68
RH..............38 42 46 54 59 63 67 67 69 72 74 74
20 FT wind dir..S S SE SE E E SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..6 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5
20 FT wind gust.14 13 14 16 17 17 14 14 14 13 13 13
Eye lvl wnd dir.S S SE SE E E SE SE SE SE SE SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.6 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.14 13 14 16 17 17 14 14 14 13 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.S S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S
Transp wind spd.13 12 12 12 10 12 12 10 9 10 10 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..58 11 11 11 11 11 11 6 6 6 6 6
Ventrate Cat....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
1700FT Mix T(F).92 93 93 93 93 92 92 91 91 91 90 89
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 103.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Dewpoint............66.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 7 mph with gusts to around
17 mph shifting to the southwest 5 to 7 mph
late in the morning.
Mixing height.......7800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 13 mph shifting to the west 12 to 14
mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5901 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (83934 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).89.
Eye level winds.....South winds 5 to 6 mph with gusts to around 17
mph shifting to the southwest late in the
morning.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........43 45 46 38 30 22 15 7 8 9 10 11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............77 75 78 82 85 89 93 96 99 101 102 102
Dewpoint........68 68 67 67 66 66 65 65 65 64 64 64
RH..............74 79 69 61 53 47 40 36 33 30 29 29
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4
20 FT wind gust.13 14 17 17 16 14 14 14 13 11 10 10
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.13 14 17 17 16 14 14 14 13 11 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.9 3.7 4.5 6.1 7.4 7.8 6.0
Transp wind dir.S S S S S SW W W W W W SW
Transp wind spd.9 9 13 13 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 41 41 41 41 41 41 84 84 84 84 84
Ventrate Cat....PR FR FR FR FR FR FR GD GD GD GD GD
1700FT Mix T(F).88 88 87 86 86 86 87 88 89 91 92 92
$$
Forecaster...K.HATFIELD
Requested by...K Wilson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2620327.0/TSA
.DELDT 08/23/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL john.wilson2@usda.gov