Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
537 FLUS44 KTSA 161902 HWOTSA Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Tulsa OK 102 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171915- Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK- Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK- Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK- Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK- Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK- Washington OK-Washington AR- 102 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. FIRE WEATHER DANGER. RISK...Limited. AREA...Mainly North of Interstate 40. ONSET...Ongoing. DISCUSSION... Afternoon relative humidity values of less than 45 percent combined with warm temperatures will allow for limited fire weather danger mainly along and north of Interstate 40. Fire weather concerns should weaken this evening as humidity values recover. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Spotter Activation Not Expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential. THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...No Hazards. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Low shower and thunderstorm chances develop Monday morning and again Monday evening and night over mainly western Arkansas with a warm front lifting through the region. Behind the front, gusty southerly winds and unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast Monday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night, and increase Wednesday through Thursday night over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with a low pressure system moving out into the Plains late week. A limited potential for a few strong to severe storms exists Wednesday before the main impact becomes a heavy rain threat Thursday into Thursday night. Ample amounts of moisture over the region could create the potential for heavy rain that could lead to an increase in flood concerns. Rain showers look to taper off during the day Friday once the low pressure system and a cold front moves through the region. weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information. $$