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FXUS65 KTWC 292047
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
147 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal high temperatures continue through
Sunday, along with dry conditions. A weather system moves to near
the Four Corners Sunday night and Monday, resulting in a few showers
in the White Mountains and slightly below normal high temperatures
on Monday. Dry weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday, with high
temperatures right around normal levels. A weather system is
expected to result in valley rain and mountain snow chances late in
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny skies with just some high thin cirroform
clouds moving through under dry west to southwest flow aloft. This
pattern will continue through Sunday with daytime temperatures about
2 to 5 degrees above normal.

A positively tilted shortwave trough will then move through the Four
Corners region Sunday night into Monday. The bulk of the moisture
and dynamics will remain well to our north but there will be a
slight chance (10-15 percent) of a few rain and high elevation snow
showers in the White Mountains Monday morning. Dry conditions
expected elsewhere with temperatures dropping to slightly below
normal levels Monday. Thereafter, a slight warming with near normal
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday as dry conditions prevail ahead
of the next weather system later in the week.

For the Thursday and Friday period, there still remains considerable
uncertainty and spread in the deterministic and ensemble model
guidance as a northern stream system digs southward through the
Great Basin and into the southwest US by Thursday and Friday. The
main split is between a more progressive trough that swings through
Arizona Thursday compared to the trough digging into a more
amplified/closed off upper low Thursday into Friday. Given the
disparity in the guidance, a blended solution is reasonable with
Thursday being more favored for precipitation chances overall in the
30 to 50 percent range. Very early indications for snow levels
during this period are in the 7000 to 8000 ft range. Regardless of
the exact evolution of this system, drier weather is expected to
return next weekend. Temperatures drop to several degrees below
normal starting on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 01/00Z.
SKC-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC wind 12
kts or less thru the valid period, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction
during the afternoon/early evening hours this afternoon and SWLY/WLY
direction Sunday afternoon and variable in direction at other times.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions through Sunday, with a slight chance
(10-15 percent) of valley rain/mountain snow Sunday night and Monday
in the White Mountains northeast of Safford. Dry conditions will
then prevail through Wednesday before precipitation chances return
area-wide Thursday into Friday. Above normal high temperatures
continue through Sunday, cooling to slightly below normal levels
Monday and then right around normal on Tuesday and Wednesday. Min RH
values will continue to be in the 20-30 percent range through
Wednesday, increasing to 40-50 percent Thursday and Friday.20-foot
sustained winds of 15 mph or less are expected the next 7 days,
along with normal diurnal wind trends.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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