Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
082 FXUS65 KTWC 032101 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 201 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions are expected across southeast Arizona this week. High temperatures will be below normal and 20- foot winds will be less than 15 mph through the upcoming weekend. Minimum RH values in the valleys will be in the 35-50 percent this week (and higher in the mountains). && .DISCUSSION... A rather benign pattern this week for southeastern Arizona as the jet stream remains to the north. While temperatures have moderated from this weekend`s activity, crossing shortwaves to the north will keep temperatures below normal through the week. Ensembles continue to show an upper level circulation breaking off from the main flow this weekend into early next week over southern Arizona to northern Baja.Sonora. There remain differences in the ensemble cores with the GEFS mean flow favoring a stronger low with a greater probability of precipitation and a weaker low with lower precipitation chances from the EPS/GEPS. Overall the grand ensemble members favor a dry solution as does the current forecast, with very low but non- zero chances of rain. Breezy easterly winds will be possible this weekend as the circulation drops to the south, with advisory level winds looking unlikely overall at this moment. && .AVIATION...Valid through 05/12Z. Mainly SKC conditions thru the forecast period. SFC wind 12 kts or less at most locations thru the forecast period, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the late afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions are expected across southeast Arizona this week. High temperatures will be below normal and 20- foot winds will be less than 15 mph through the work week. Breezy easterly winds are possible this weekend, though should generally remain below critical levels. Minimum RH values in the valleys will be in the 35-50 percent range this week (and higher in the mountains). && .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall from this past Friday into early Monday continues to result in significant flows on the Gila River, Santa Cruz River, Greene Wash, and Vamori Wash. While these flows are forecast to gradually recede, the Gila River at Duncan is forecast to crest above action stage this evening as additional rises work their way from New Mexico into Greenlee County. Further downstream, the Gila River at Calva will see a crest above action stage late this afternoon as well. Flood Advisories are now in effect for those stream reaches in Graham and Greenlee counties. Minor flooding of the Greene Wash and Vamori Wash also continue on the Tohono O`odham Nation in central Pima County and southern Pinal County. A Flood Warning remains in effect for Vamori Wash and a Flood Advisory for the Greene Wash. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Edwards AVIATION...Edwards FIRE WEATHER...Edwards HYDROLOGY...DVS/CWR Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson