053
FXUS65 KTWC 112115
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
215 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above
normal through Friday. A low pressure system is then expected to
impact the region this weekend, bringing chances for rain and high
elevation mountain snow, much cooler temperatures, and breezy
conditions. Unsettled conditions are expected to continue early next
week along with below normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this afternoon showed abundant
sunshine with scattered thin cirrus level clouds passing through
with more cirrus upstream expected to overspread the area tonight.
With an upper ridge overhead, high temperatures once again are
running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Today is likely to be the
warmest Veterans Day areawide since 2017.

Wednesday and Thursday: High temperatures will remain 5 to 10
degrees above normal under various amounts of high clouds. During
these two days a Pacific weather system will be deepening
along/near the west coast. This system will be our next
precipitation maker this weekend.

Friday into this weekend: There is an old saying, "Cut-off lows,
weatherman`s woes". Latest ensemble guidance has slowed down the
next system, which is not surprising and usually happens in a cut-
off low scenario. This has led to warmer high temperatures both
Friday and Saturday versus previous thinking. With a slower
scenario, and in coordination with WFOs PSR and FGZ, PoPs were
scaled back from the initialized NBM package, starting Friday
afternoon into Saturday. Even with this change, still quite of bit
of uncertainty on timing, how much QPF with rather large spreads
in the ensemble world and where the cut-off low bottoms out off
the srn CA or nrn Baja coast and how fast it eventually lifts NE
across the desert SW. Plenty of time to iron out the details which
includes the slight chance of thunderstorms and much cooler
temperatures.

Next week: Upper level trofiness remains across the western CONUS
keeping unsettled conditions across the area with the potential
for another closed low in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. This
is highlighted in CPCs 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks with
probabilities leaning toward wetter and cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/00Z.
SCT to at times BKN cirrus level clouds AOA 20k ft AGL. SFC winds
light, terrain driven, and under 10 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Light terrain driven winds mainly under 12 mph
through Wednesday with minimum relative humidities of 12 to 22
percent. A low pressure system will likely impact the cross the
region this weekend with increased chances of rain and high
elevation mountain snow. Winds will begin to increase ahead of this
system Thursday and especially Friday. Well above normal high
temperatures through Friday then turning sharply cooler this weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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