Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
641 FXUS65 KTWC 072125 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 225 PM MST Sun Jun 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will remain around normal today and Monday, warming 4-8 degree above normal Tuesday into the weekend. Breezy conditions are expected each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION...Current water vapor imagery shows a longwave trough extending from the Pacific Northwest down to the west coast of Baja. To the east an omega block is in place over the Midwest with broad high pressure to the south extending from the west Atlantic into Texas. South to southeast flow ahead of the trough has brought a small amount of midlevel moisture to areas east of Tucson into New Mexico. There are some cumulus clouds over the higher terrain of Graham and Cochise County because of this. Earlier runs of the HRRR and a couple HREF members showed a couple storms along the AZ/NM, but have backed off in later runs. Any thunderstorm development will likely be east of the CWA in New Mexico. Monday will see a similar setup. The longwave trough stays over the western U.S. through at least the middle of the week with its southern periphery slowly flattening out as the aforementioned ridge slowly builds westward. This will lead to daily breezy afternoon winds through Thursday. Today and Monday the strongest winds will be west of Tucson and in the White Mountains, then Tuesday into Thursday the strongest winds will be in Graham County. Right now winds aren`t strong enough to meet Red Flag Criteria, but with RH 8-15 percent fire weather conditions will be elevated each day. Later in the work week into next weekend the ridge continues its westward expansion and becomes centered over Texas or northern Mexico, which will increase heights over Arizona. This will lead to a warmup starting during the middle of the week. High temperatures will be around normal today and Monday warming to 4-8 degrees above normal Tuesday into the weekend. Right now HeatRisk is moderate over most of the CWA with small areas of Major in the Gila River Valley during the last part of the work week. At the same time ensembles show PWAT values steadily increasing starting Wednesday with mean PWAT values around an inch by the weekend, but still a large spread around the mean. NBM introduces 15-25 percent PoPs Saturday into Sunday east of Tucson, but rain chances could arrive earlier depending on how the moisture plays out. && .AVIATION...Valid through 08/12Z. SCT-BKN high level cirrus area-wide with FEW-SCT cumulus 10k-14k ft AGL east of Tucson through the late evening. Skies briefly clear overnight with SCT cumulus developing again Monday afternoon. Surface winds will be 10-15 kts with gusts 15-22 kts through 08/03Z, becoming light and terrain driven tonight. Winds increase again Monday afternoon 10-15 kts with gusts 15-22 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Winds through the middle of the coming week will be southwesterly 12-18 mph each afternoon with gusts to 25-30 mph. Minimum relative humidity values should remain fairly consistently 8-15 percent across desert locations and 12-18 percent in the mountains, with the potential for increasing relative humidity Friday into next weekend. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible each afternoon through Thursday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson