994
FXUS65 KTWC 021932
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1232 PM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions are expected across southeast Arizona
this week. High temperatures will be below normal through the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper low along the New Mexico/Colorado border will
continue to push east today as shortwave ridging over California
begins to nose in from the west. The shortwave ridge axis will shift
across the state on Tuesday. A system will move to our north across
the Great Basin Tuesday night and Wednesday, flattening the ridge
across Arizona. Baggy troughiness will persist behind this system
Thursday and Friday. Stronger upper level ridging then takes place
across the desert southwest over the upcoming weekend.

Clearing skies continues to take place from west to east across
southeast Arizona today behind the exiting low pressure system. High
temperatures today will top out 5-12 degrees below normal, with
highs generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The heavy rain this
last weekend led to significant rises on some of the mainstem
rivers, creeks and washes across the forecast area, with a few areas
still having impacts. Please refer to the HYDROLOGY section below
for additional details.

Otherwise, periods of high clouds this week and high temperatures
Tuesday through the upcoming weekend 3-8 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 04/00Z.
SCT clouds at 5k-7k ft AGL thru 03/03Z, then clear skies/SKC
conditions thru the remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind 12
kts or less at most locations thru the forecast period, favoring a
WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and
variable in direction at other times. The exception will be at KSAD
where NWLY SFC wind at 12-17 kts and gusts to around 25 kts will
occur thru 03/01Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected across southeast
Arizona this week. High temperatures will be below normal and 20-
foot winds will be less than 15 mph through the upcoming weekend.
Minimum RH values in the valleys will be in the 35-50 percent this
week (and higher in the mountains).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Rainfall over the past 72 hours led to rises on most
rivers and creeks across southeast Arizona. While most levels are
slowly receding, there continues to be a couple of areas of concern.
Those include: 1) the Vamori Wash in central Pima County, 2) the
Santa Cruz River and Greene Wash in northern Pima County/southern
Pinal County, and 3) the Gila River at Solomon. Flood Warnings
and/or Flood Advisories are currently in effect for those areas.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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