612
FXUS65 KTWC 290941
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
241 AM MST Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend with higher chances generally south and east of Tucson.
Increasing moisture by early next week should bring an increase
in thunderstorm chances to southeastern Arizona, with day to day
variability.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Outflows and southerly mean flow have pushed showers and
thunderstorms into southeastern Arizona out of Sonora early this
morning. Activity may linger through a portion of the morning, but
guidance remains inconsistent on longevity or even getting a
handle on current activity. Lingering cloud cover will then impact
this afternoon and evening`s thunderstorm chances, but overall
chances should remain highest south and east of Tucson with just a
slight chance in the Tucson metro. Though coverage through Santa
Cruz, Cochise, and northward into Grant/Greenlee may be on the
isolated/scattered side, any thunderstorm may produce a period of
moderate to heavy rainfall, bringing an isolated flash flooding
risk.

Saturday`s monsoon chances look similar to today`s, then
potentially an uptick in trends Sunday into early next week as
mean flow turns easterly. Ensemble members are in moderately good
agreement with keeping moisture in southeastern Arizona through
the week, bringing daily thunderstorm chances (with the caveat of
day to day variability).

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 30/12Z.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today with cloud
bases 8k-11k feet. Just isolated coverage of thunderstorms this
morning, becoming scattered mainly south and east of KTUS after
29/20Z. Winds transition from light and terrain driven to west to
northwesterly after 29/18Z. Gusty and erratic winds possible with
any thunderstorm. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
Amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Expect daily chances for rain showers and
thunderstorms into this weekend with potential for an uptick in
thunderstorm activity early next week. High temperatures will be
near or slightly above normal into this weekend. Winds will
generally remain less than 15 mph with typical afternoon
gustiness. Min RHs will be 25-35 percent in the low elevations
and 40-55 percent in the mountains through Saturday then min RHs
drop to 15-25 percent in the low elevations and to 20-35 percent
in the mountains on Sunday. Moisture should tick back up early
next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...Edwards
Aviation...Edwards
Fire Weather....Edwards

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