732
FXUS65 KTWC 172037
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
137 PM MST Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot conditions will continue across southeast
Arizona this week. The hottest temperatures of 2025 are forecast
to occur on Thursday with record or near record highs Thursday and
Friday. Expect breezy afternoon and early evening winds this
weekend. Moisture begins to increase over the weekend, resulting in
a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly
southeast of Tucson Saturday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft over northern Mexico will become
centered over Arizona and New Mexico on Thursday. The high center
will shift eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and then into
the southeastern United States this weekend as a trough develops
along the west coast. Toughing continues along the west coast
through the middle of next week, as a weak upper low moves across
central California and into the Great Basin.

Hot temperatures today and Wednesday, with highs topping out at 105-
109 degrees from Tucson westward and in the upper Gila River valley
near Safford and between 100-105 degrees in the lower elevations of
Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. Breezy winds will persist through
the early evening hours tonight across portions of Cochise and
Graham counties (and especially in the Gila River valley), with near
critical fire weather conditions. Less wind on Wednesday, but still
gusty during the afternoon hours due to strong surface heating.

With the high nearly overhead on Thursday and Friday, we will
experience the hottest temperatures so far of 2025. Near record to
record highs are expected and an Extreme Heat Warning remains in
effect from 10 am Thursday through 9 pm Friday. Thursday is expected
to be the hottest day. Major HeatRisk with pockets of Extreme
HeatRisk on both days. NBM probabilities of 114+ degrees in Tucson
are 75 percent Thursday and 20 percent on Friday. Thursday
probabilities in Tucson for 115 degrees are 50 percent, 116 degrees
is 25 percent and there is even a 10 percent chance at 117 degrees
which would tie our all time record high. For more information on
the Extreme Heat Warning please refer to the PHXNPWTWC product.

As the high slides off to our east this weekend, high temperatures
lower to near normal by Sunday. The west coast trough will result in
elevated wind speeds and near critical fire weather conditions are
expected both Saturday and Sunday. Winds will be southwest at 15-20
mph with gusts to 30-35 mph. Monsoonal moisture will try to move
north from Mexico and westward across New Mexico this weekend.
However, the trough to our west and southwest flow will keep this
moisture from advancing very far west across southeast Arizona. At
this time, shower/thunderstorm chances are mainly confined southeast
of a Sierra Vista to Safford line. The interaction between the
trough and high will not only be important for how far west the
moisture moves, but also how deep the moisture is; and therefore,
dry thunderstorms versus thunderstorms of the wet variety.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 19/00Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions thru the forecast period. SFC wind thru
18/03Z, WLY/NWLY at 8-14 kts with gusts to around 20 kts west of a
KE77 to KOLS line and 17-22 kts and gusts to around 30 kts east of
this line. SFC wind between 18/03Z and 18/18Z, variable in direction
and less than 10 kts. SFC wind aft 18/18Z, WLY/NWLY at 7-13 kts and
gusts to around 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Near critical to locally critical fire weather
conditions for a few hours across portions of Cochise and Graham
counties through the early evening hours tonight, especially in the
upper Gila River Valley. Otherwise, hot and dry conditions are
expected with near record to record breaking temperatures Thursday
and Friday. By this weekend, wind speeds pick back up with near
critical conditions Saturday and Sunday. Monsoonal moisture will
seep into far eastern areas along the International Border and the
New Mexico border for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday, with increasing chances spreading westward next
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

DATE                         Jun 19           Jun 20
                          FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       114 115/2017     110 116/2017
AJO                       112 114/2017     106 119/2017
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         109 119/2016     104 118/2016
PICACHO PEAK              109 115/2016     107 115/2017
SAFFORD AG STATION        111 113/2021     111 112/2017
SIERRA VISTA FD           104 106/1989     102 110/2017
TOMBSTONE                 104 108/1989     103 110/2017
WILLCOX                   106 108/2017     105 112/2017
DOUGLAS                   106 109/2017     104 108/2017

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 9 PM MST Friday for
  AZZ501>509.

&&

$$

Zell

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