442
FXUS65 KTWC 242020
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
120 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler than normal temperatures this afternoon then a
warmup to normal or a few degrees above normal Tuesday into the
first part of the weekend. The next weather system could possibly
impact southeast Arizona late this weekend into early next week
bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...This afternoon high temperatures will be slightly
below normal topping out in the 60s across southeast Arizona.
Overnight low temperatures will dip into the 30s and 40s. Fog
formation will again be possible in our eastern valley locations
mainly after 2 am MST. I do not anticipate the fog to be quite as
dense as this morning, but slight chances (10-20%) exist for
visibility reductions to below one-quarter mile. Motorists should
drive with caution and be prepared for sudden drops in
visibility.

Looking ahead through the remainder of the week, temperatures will
return above normal for Wednesday through Friday with highs in the
mid 70s as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over the
southwest. Morning temperatures will remain on the chilly side
through Wednesday morning, especially for valleys east of Tucson
where lows will be around freezing to the upper 30s.

Next weekend into early next week ensembles show another Pacific
trough potentially moving through, which could bring another round
of precipitation and cooler temperatures. Still a lot of run to run
and model to model differences but increasing confidence in a
pattern change taking place. Right now the NBM introduces PoPs late
Saturday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/00Z.
MVFR and IFR vis possible at KOLS due to fog tomorrow morning
between 25/12Z and 25/17Z. HREF probabilities are around 20 percent
for vis less than a mile. If any fog or low stratus does form it
will likely dissipate by 24/19Z. Outside of any low stratus tomorrow
morning, skies will be SKC. SFC winds westerly/northwesterly at 5-10
kts through 25/03Z and again after 25/17Z. Otherwise, SFC winds VRBL
at less than 5 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures will be below normal this afternoon,
then a warming trend takes over. Dry conditions are also expected
through at least Friday. Min RH will be 30-60 percent through
Tuesday, dropping to 20-30 percent thereafter. 20 foot winds follow
normal diurnal trends with speeds 5 to 10 mph and occasional
afternoon gusts.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DVS

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