Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
351 FXUS65 KTWC 111158 CCA AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion...Correction National Weather Service Tucson AZ 457 AM MST Tue Aug 11 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Expect daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday with day to day variability in storm coverage. A drier southwest flow aloft will bring a downturn in daily storm activity Friday into the weekend. High temperatures will be near normal today, then 3 to 6 degrees below normal tomorrow and Thursday before temperatures warm again into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Radar was showing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving west-northwest across the area this morning likely associated with a disturbance aloft. South of the border a decaying MCS likely sending outflows to the west-northwest which will develop isolated storms near/along the Intl border this morning. Some of the showers this morning have had some pretty good rainfall rates, up to 1"/hr. The CAMs this morning are absolutely lost with what is currently going on. Argh. Once these showers/storms end later this morning, we are looking at another active mid-afternoon into this evening with heavy rain and localized severe wind gusts the main concerns. Flash flood watch in effect from 2 pm to 11 pm from Tucson east. Potential again exists for activity to continue into the overnight periods Wednesday morning. Wednesday: Flow aloft starts to turn out of south with upper high moving into central TX and an upper level trof moving into the west coast. Still plenty of moisture around for continued chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms will the usual threats associated with them. Thursday: The upper level trof to our west turns the upper level flow to the southwest and start to import some drier air aloft. Plenty of moisture still around for another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms with storm motion now to the northeast instead of the west-northwest during the past week or so. Friday into the weekend: Significant downturn in daily thunderstorm activity as drier air pushes across the area under southwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms at best, and mostly east of Tucson during these 3 days. Monday: Flow aloft returns to the east-southeast resulting in a slight uptick in storms. Nothing special. Temperatures will be near normal today, then be about 3 to 6 degrees below normal Wednesday and Thursday, with warming thereafter to above normal values for this weekend. && .AVIATION...Valid thru 12/12Z. WDLY SCT -SHRA/-TSRA with clouds 8-12k ft AGL thru 11/17z then SCT -SHRA/TS aft 11/21z and contg thru end of valid pd. Isold vsbys 1SM +TSRA. Gusty erratic winds of 35-50 kts possible with any thunderstorm. Outside of storms SFC winds WLY/NWLY at 8-12 kts with ocnl gusts to 20 kts this aftn and evening. SFC winds light and terrain driven after 12/06Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through Thursday with less coverage Friday into next weekend. Minimum relative humidity will be 20-40 percent Monday through Thursday lowering to around 15-30 percent thereafter. Temperatures will be near normal through Tuesday, dropping to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, then warming again next weekend. Outside of thunderstorms, winds terrain driven to around 10 mph with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 mph. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 2 PM MST this afternoon through this evening for AZZ503-504-507>509-511>514. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson