250
FXUS65 KTWC 132152
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
252 PM MST Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot conditions will continue across southeast
Arizona through at least early next week. Temperatures peak this
Saturday through Monday, with extreme heat across southeast Arizona
and highs 8 to 12 degrees above normal.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing confidence for major heat impacts tomorrow thru
  Monday.

- Gusty winds may result in near critical fire weather conditions
  across the Gila River Valley in Graham county Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong upper level high is in place across the
Desert Southwest which is expected to strengthen further over the
weekend. Increasing thicknesses are supportive of high temperatures
approaching 110 degrees for Tucson Sunday and again on Monday,
with latest NBM probabilistic guidance depicting that Tucson has a
high chance (75 percent) on Sunday and a 50 percent chance on
Monday for reaching or exceeding 110 degrees. Other areas that
will could see temperatures around 110 degrees include the Gila
River Valley, Tohono O`odham Nation, and western Pima county.
Higher desert areas east of Tucson outside of the Gila Valley will
see temperatures between 100 and 106. An Extreme Heat Warning is
in effect for all of southeast Arizona beginning at 10 am tomorrow
morning and concluding at 8 pm Monday evening.

A weak trough passing over the area on Tuesday will result in breezy
to gusty winds in the Gila River Valley in Graham county. There is
increasing confidence in wind speeds between 15-20 mph with gusts to
around 30 mph. Combined with the daily single digit afternoon
minimum relative humidity, there could be brief periods of localized
near critical fire weather conditions across Graham county. Refer to
the fire weather section below for more details. Otherwise, the
trough will cool temperatures by a few degrees areawide keeping
temperatures just out of major heatrisk on Tuesday before the
subtropical ridge quickly reamplifies on Wednesday into Thursday.
There is a slight chance (~30 percent) for Tucson making another
run at 110 degrees on Thursday.

Looking out in the 8-14 day period (June 20-26), CPC is leaning
toward above normal rainfall (35% to 50%) as we start seeing the
first push of monsoonal moisture creep/seep north across northern
Mexico toward SE AZ. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/00Z.
SKC-FEW clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the fcst pd. SFC winds this
afternoon WLY/NWLY at 8-12 kts with gusts to around 20 kts and 12-16
kts with gusts to 25 kts at KSAD through 14/03Z. SFC winds becoming
VRBL in direction and less than 8 kts thereafter. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and hot conditions are expected across southeast
Arizona through early next week. Generally single digit min RH
values in the valleys, with mountain locations in the 10-18 percent
range. 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less from Tucson westward,
with occasional afternoon/early evening gusts to around 20 mph due
to the strong surface heating. East of Tucson, breezy afternoon and
early evening 20-foot winds are expected in the Gila River Valley
today with peak wind speeds of 12-18 mph and gusts to around 30 mph.
Expect similar speeds from Tucson eastward Monday and Tuesday as a
weak weather system moves through. The strongest winds will again be
in the upper Gila River valley near Safford, with the possibility of
a few hours of near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 8 PM MST Monday for
  AZZ501>509.

&&

$$

DVS

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