Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
684 FXUS65 KTWC 050831 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 131 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions are expected across southeast Arizona today, then a weak weather system brings the potential for a few showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon into early Saturday from Tucson eastward with dry conditions resuming thereafter. High temperatures will be below normal through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION...Clear skies this morning across southeast Arizona and its shaping up to be another pleasant day with slightly below normal temperatures as some high clouds passing through with westerly flow aloft. The next weather system is now located over the Pacific NW and is digging towards the southeast today towards the Great Basin. For the past couple of days we`ve been talking about the potential to become a closed low and dig farther south and west into AZ compared to a potentially more progressive open wave solution. Latest trends continue towards the more closed low solution with the ECMWF/EPS leading the way and the other model solutions seemingly playing catch up. With that said, this upper low will push south across west- central AZ Friday and towards southern AZ Friday evening with locales east of the track of the upper low having the potential for scattered shower activity (20 to 50 percent chances) with a slight chance of thunderstorms starting Friday afternoon from Tucson area eastward, with shower chances lingering east of Tucson Friday night into Saturday. This isn`t looking like a very impactful event with QPF values mainly less than 0.25". Once any lingering shower chances depart to our east on Saturday, dry and seasonable conditions will then prevail through the remainder of the forecast period. As surface high pressure builds down the front range of the Rockies this weekend, easterly flow will prevail in the lower levels for some breezes, especially for locales most susceptible for east winds. The next more significant weather system could impact our region around next Friday into that following weekend. && .AVIATION...Valid through 06/12Z. Mainly SKC through the forecast period with some periods of SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL. Surface wind 12 kts or less at most locations thru the forecast period, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the late afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected across southeast Arizona today, then 20 to 50 percent chances of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms from Tucson eastward Friday afternoon into Saturday. High temperatures will be below normal and 20-foot winds will be less than 15 mph through the work week. Breezy easterly winds are possible this weekend, though should generally remain below critical levels. Minimum RH values in the valleys will be in the 35-50 percent range into next week (and higher in the mountains), with a few lower elevation ares dipping below 30 percent early next week. && .HYDROLOGY...Rainfall from this past Friday into early Monday continues to result in significant flows on the Gila River in Graham County in the Calva region. While these flows are forecast to continue receding today and ultimately drop below action stage by this afternoon, a Flood Advisory still remains in effect for this stretch of the Gila River. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson