564
FXUS65 KTWC 300948
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
248 AM MST Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A low-grade monsoon day is expected today. Any thunderstorm
chances are mainly in far southern and eastern locations of
southeastern Arizona. Moisture and thunderstorm chances begin to
increase again Sunday through next week, with day to day
variability. High temperatures will be near normal through early
next week, lowering to several degrees below normal the second
half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today, winds in the low to mid levels take a northerly turn,
pushing moisture south and out of much of southeastern Arizona.
Precipitable water values exceeding one inch will be mostly kept
to far southern and eastern locations, with today`s modest
precipitation chances subsequently focused on Santa Cruz and
Cochise counties.

By early Sunday mean wind will have become easterly, pushing
moisture back into Greenlee/Graham/Cochise counties. Thunderstorm
chances increase, especially over mountain areas. As winds aloft
take somewhat of a northeasterly component, thunderstorms moving off
the White Mountains may impact the Interstate 10 corridor with
gusty winds and potentially blowing dust. There remains plenty of
time for the details in high-resolution modeling to change, but
the end of the 00Z HREF late Sunday afternoon shows signs of
stronger wind probabilities through southern Greenlee,
southeastern Graham, and into northern Cochise county.

Easterly flow in the mid-levels looks likely to continue through
much of the coming week, providing an active forecast each day
(with the caveat of day to day variability in chances). Thursday
into the weekend will be worth watching for increasing coverage of
thunderstorm chances. Modest synoptic support via a Pacific
shortwave aloft may kick off greater coverage towards the end of
the week, while the (uncertain) potential for a moisture boost via
an eastern Pacific tropical system this coming weekend remains.

Temperatures through the upcoming seven days will transition from
near to just above normal through mid-week, then likely becoming
below by the end of the week with the influence of increasing
thunderstorm activity and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 31/12Z.

Cloud bases at 8k-11k ft and isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly south and east especially near KDUG. Just cirrus
clouds today further north/west through KTUS. Winds mainly light
and terrain driven. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF Amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A low-grade monsoon day is expected today with increasing chances
in eastern locations tomorrow. Daily chances will continue through
the upcoming week, with day to day variability. High temperatures will
be near to slightly above normal through the weekend, with
readings lowering to several degrees below normal by the second
half of the work week. Winds over the next several days will
generally remain less than 15 mph with typical afternoon
gustiness. Min RHs will be in the 20-30 percent range in the lower
elevations and 35-45 percent in the mountains.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...Edwards
Aviation...Edwards
Fire Weather....Edwards

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