396
FXUS65 KTWC 251714
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1014 AM MST Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Southeast Arizona will continue to see enough moisture for a daily
chance of thunderstorms into next week. Some storms will generate
strong winds and locally heavy rain. Temperatures will heat up a
few degrees by the middle of the week as high pressure builds
overhead. Looking into July, the pattern is favoring active
weather as additional moisture will likely move into the area.

&&

.UPDATE... The current forecast is still on track for this
afternoon and evening. The moisture is still here with the
latest 12Z sounding this morning showing 1.8 inches of PW. To put
this number into context, based on sounding climatology, we are
currently well above the 90th percentiles and daily maximum for PW
that is 1.44 inches.

With the passage of the Mesoscale Convective Vortex early this
morning, the atmosphere is a tad worked over to produce any
stronger storms this afternoon and evening. Behind this MCV, there
is an area of subsidence, or sinking air aloft, that will inhibit
today`s afternoon and evening thunderstorms from getting too
strong. As the remnants begin to move northward, the areas that
are getting clearer first, areas south and east of Tucson have the
best storm chances for this afternoon and evening. CAMs are in
agreement with the best storm chances being fairly limited to
these areas. As for timing, this all depends on when the clouds
are able to move out and how long it takes for the atmosphere to
overcome the convective inhibition, but CAMs are showing some
development over the higher terrain around 1-2pm and forming in
the valleys around 3-4pm continuing into the evening hours.
Similar to yesterday, the main hazards with any thunderstorm will
be locally heavy rainfall that can lead to nuisance flooding, as
storms will stay very close to areas of formation with slow storm
motion. Strong gusty winds are possible, but not the main hazard
of focus today and will be isolated to the strongest storms of the
day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 210 AM MST Tue Jun 25 2024/

&&

.DISCUSSION...Merging outflows were able to take advantage of
remnant elevated CAPE over lower elevations from Tucson westward
over the past several hours. In addition, a convective complex
just south of the border is pushing additional debris could with
embedded showers up from the south this morning. Trends will
continue to slowly weaken through early morning hours.

A remnant MCV will drift north across the area today, with some
subsidence in it`s wake. We`ll also start to see some mid level
warming as the high center reconsolidates near the area over the
next 36 hours. With this in mind, overall we`re expecting fewer
storms around as the atmosphere recovers into mid and late
afternoon hours. We may be watching another strong complex in
northwest Mexico try to push an outflow up from the south and
southeast in the evening hours.

With the ridge strengthening, we`ll heat up a few degrees but
should have enough moisture to take the edge off and avoid any
heat headlines. As larger scale features become less favorable for
moisture import, we`re getting nice reinforcement from active
complexes sending deep outflows up from Sonora and northwest
Chihuahua. Meanwhile we`re easily maintaining dewpoints in the
60s with precipitable water values ranging from about 1.4 inches
east to 1.9 inches west. Keep an eye out for additional (but more
modest) gulf surge activity by this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/12Z.
SCT SHRA with ISOLD TSRA through 25/13Z. SCT TSRA will develop
again after 25/20Z. Brief MVFR conditions possible with storms.
Winds generally remain below 10 kts through the forecast period,
except for gusty outflow winds from storms. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relatively deep moisture will keep RH values on the higher side
into next week, along with daily chances for thunderstorms.
Moisture is expected to be deep enough for some storms to generate
locally heavy rain. Winds should generally remain below 15 mph
each afternoon, though occasional gusts to 20 mph are possible.
Stronger erratic outflows with some thunderstorms.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Tetrault

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