Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
137 FXUS65 KTWC 020928 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 228 AM MST Sat Aug 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A drying trend with continued above normal temperatures this weekend. Still enough moisture for isolated showers and thunderstorms south and east of Tucson today with dry air overtaking all of southeast Arizona Sunday. Thereafter, below normal monsoonal activity is expected next week. Extreme heat will continue through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Clear skies this morning across southeast Arizona as the mid/upper level high is located over our forecast area. This high will continue to bring well above normal temperatures and extreme heat for much of southeast Arizona this weekend. Still enough residual moisture recycling under the high today for isolated shower and thunderstorm activity south and east of Tucson. However, with the high overhead, that will limit updraft growth, thus any shower/thunderstorm activity will be on the weaker side with just some brief downpours and locally gusty winds. The moisture will get shunted to our south Sunday with dry conditions expected to prevail across the entire forecast area with similar temperatures. The main story for next week is going to be a continuation of the extreme heat. The Extreme Heat Warning is in place through Tuesday with Extreme Heat Watches Wednesday through Friday and those continue to look good. The high will likely peak in strength around Wednesday and Thursday with August monthly record highs in jeopardy. See climate section below for additional information. Monsoonal moisture will be limited next week but enough will sneak back in for an uptick in storm activity back into a lower grade pattern, especially along the Int`l border. && .AVIATION...Valid through 03/12Z. SKC conditions this morning, then SCT clouds 8-12k ft AGL with isold -SHRA/-TSRA aft 02/18z, mainly S and E of KTUS thru 03/04Z before diminishing. Skies becomes SKC again aft 02/05Z. Surface winds generally below 12 kts away from thunderstorm activity, with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drying this weekend with slight chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly south and east of Tucson today with dry conditions areawide Sunday. Overall winds are expected to remain under 15 mph with occasional afternoon gustiness, however strong erratic winds are possible with any thunderstorm. Hot temperatures will continue next week with a low grade monsoon pattern. && .CLIMATE...All-time August record highs and date. Ajo 118 on August 28, 2023 Organ Pipe Cactus 116 on August 5, 1995 Picacho Peak 114 on August 28, 1998 Tucson Intl airport 112 on August 1, 1993 Safford (town) 110 on August 16, 2024 Willcox 108 on August 1, 2020 Nogales (town) 107 on August 5, 2023 Douglas airport 106 on August 5, 2023 Sierra Vista 105 on August 6, 2023 && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ501>507-509- 510-515. Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for AZZ501>509-515. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson