737
FXUS65 KTWC 020825
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
125 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather with seasonable high temperatures. A
weather system will initially bring some afternoon breezes
Wednesday, then cooler temperatures and a slight chance of snow
showers for the White Mountains Wednesday night. Dry weather then
returns to Southeast Arizona Thursday into early next week with
high temperatures returning to near seasonable levels this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper pattern this morning is defined by a large
amplitude ridge in the Eastern Pacific with its ridge axis
extending into the Gulf of Alaska, a cutoff low under this feature
around 24N/129W, a shortwave trough diving south along the NE
periphery of the ridge into the Pacific Northwest, and a mean
trough positioned across the central CONUS. The upper ridge is
expected to flop over into British Columbia/Pacific Northwest
today. This will allow for the shortwave in that area to dive SSE
thru the Intermountain West over the next 24-48 hours. Another
shortwave bowling over the top of the upper ridge will keep this
feature progressive with it only providing a glancing blow for our
neck of the woods when the low center moves through the Four
Corners Wednesday night. Other than a slight chance of showers to
the Whites, this system will have little impact for Southeast
Arizona. The biggest impact will be the potential for some breezy
west to southwest winds 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph Wednesday
as the southern periphery of this feature swings thru Southeast
Arizona.

Otherwise, this trough will fill into the mean trough to our east
Thursday with our neck of the woods residing between the upper
ridge to our west and the upper trough to our east. Mild and dry
pattern for us. Models have difficulty resolving this type of
pattern with regards to the cutoff low that is trapped under the
upper ridge to our southwest. It will most likely impact portions
of NW Mexico over the next 7-10 days. The only way for it to impact
on our neck of the woods is if the upper ridge drifts west than
its current position. Low confidence for this to occur.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 03/12Z. Skies SKC thru the valid period.
SFC wind WLY/NWLY 8-12 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts this
afternoon and early this evening and variable in direction and
less than 12 kts all other times. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather with near normal high temperatures through
Wednesday. A weather system will initially bring some afternoon breezes
Wednesday, then cooler temperatures and a slight chance of snow showers
for the White Mountains Wednesday night. Expect elevated 20-foot winds
from the west/southwest around 15 mph with gusts 25 mph over portions
of eastern Santa Cruz and Cochise counties Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise,
Min RH values will be in the 25-35 percent range through Friday, lowering
to 20-30 percent this weekend. Dry weather with lighter winds will return
to Southeast Arizona Thursday into early next week with high temperatures
returning to near seasonable levels this weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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