137
FXUS65 KTWC 162117
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
217 PM MST Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot conditions will continue across southeast
Arizona through at least early next week. Temperatures peak this
today, with extreme heat across southeast Arizona and highs 8 to
12 degrees above normal. Increase breezes at the start of the new
week due to a passing weather system. Another round of hot
temperatures near to records on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today: Major HEAT Risk for Southeast Arizona. Extreme Heat
  Warning in effect through 8 pm MST. Temperatures hot as 112
  today.

- This afternoon and Tuesday: Hot, Dry, Breezy for fire weather
  concerns. Near to locally critical fire weather conditions may
  exist in the Upper Gila River Valley, San Simon Valley, and
  around Safford.


- Thursday - Friday: Near to breaking record temperatures for
  Southeast Arizona. Poses Major Heat Risk with areas near Extreme
  Risk. Extreme Heat Warning in effect for Thursday through
  Friday. A 54% percent of reaching 115 in Tuscon on Thursday.



&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies across the region with high
pressure center located to the southeast corner of Arizona.
Temperatures will continue to another few degrees. Tucson Airport
reached 109 as of 13:38 MST. Therefore, Extreme Heat Warning will
continue through this evening.

A trough will be passing to our north starting late this
afternoon and into tomorrow. This will help bring temperatures
down a few degrees tomorrow and Wednesday. This trough will bring
increase breezes mainly in the areas east of Tucson. Breezes can
feel the strongest in the early evening as the sun starts to set.
The strongest winds will be in the Gila River Valley and around
Safford. Tomorrow, winds will be stronger with gusts up to 35 mph.
With the preceding days of being Hot and Dry, these breezy
conditions will raise fire weather concerns to near critical to
locally critical in the late afternoon to early evening for a few
hours. The highest concern will be in the Gila River Valley to San
Simon which is Safford and east toward the state line.

After the slight cool down, honestly not much, Southeast Arizona
will jump right back into the very hot temperatures. The ridge of
high pressure will strengthen over the region and boosting our
thickness levels high. The thicknesses support 114 degrees for
Tucson. The ensemble models has a range of potential solutions for
Tucson with the median temperature bin of 112-114F. There 28%
members shooting for 114-116F; 9% of members for 116-118F; and 3%
percent of members for 118-120F. This increases the confidence for
near to record breaking temperatures. See Climate section for
record details. Overnight temperatures will be elevated which
provides little to no relief in the heat. Therefore, an Extreme
Heat Warning is in effect Thursday morning through Friday evening.

Reminder: Stay hydrated! Stay cool in a/c! Limit time outside the
hottest part of the day.

Next weekend, atmospheric moisture will start creep in a little
to provide low chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly along
the International Border.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z.
SKC thru much of the valid pd with SCT 10-12k ft AGL SE of KTUS
through 17/01Z. SFC winds WLY/NWLY at 8-14 kts with gusts around
20 kts and 13-17 kts with gusts to 25 kts at KSAD through 17/03Z.
Similar winds after 17/18Z with the strongest gust near KSAD
around 30 kts through the end of the forecast period. Overnight
winds generally terrain driven and less than 10 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Near critical to locally critical fire weather
conditions may exist for a few hours within the upper Gila River
Valley to San Simon Valley (Safford and east to New Mexico). Wind
speeds expected to be around 20 mph with gusts peaking up 35 mph.
Strongest winds expected tomorrow and easing up in the late
evening. Otherwise winds everywhere else will be 15 mph with gusts
up to 20 mph due to strong surface heating. Rest of the week, hot
and dry conditions expected with near to record breaking
temperatures on Thursday and Friday. Monsoon moisture will creep
along the International Border to bring slight chances for showers
and thunderstorms by the weekend.


&&

.CLIMATE...


RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

DATE                         Jun 19           Jun 20
                          FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       114 115/2017     111 116/2017
AJO                       111 114/2017     105 119/2017
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         109 119/2016     104 118/2016
PICACHO PEAK              109 115/2016     107 115/2017
SAFFORD AG STATION        111 113/2021     110 112/2017
SIERRA VISTA FD           104 106/1989     102 110/2017
TOMBSTONE                 104 108/1989     103 110/2017
WILLCOX                   106 108/2017     105 112/2017


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ501>509.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 9 PM MST Friday for
AZZ501>509.

&&

$$


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