


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
245 FXUS65 KTWC 160909 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 209 AM MST Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and below normal temperatures prevail this week. Expect a warming trend this weekend to near normal temperatures Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Clear skies and cool temperatures today as southeast Arizona remains under the influence of a trough moving through the Great Basin. After a cool start (lows in the 50s for the deserts and 40s for valley south and east of Tucson), temperatures will warm into the 70s for most valleys, translating to levels about 5 to 11 degrees below normal. A positively tilted trough axis will still remain over our region Friday with continued below normal temperatures before a more split flow pattern regime sets up during the weekend into early next week. Still some uncertainty in the evolution of this pattern but dry conditions will prevail this weekend with temperatures warming back up to near normal levels by Sunday. For early to mid next week, a cut-off low will eventually shift eastward from the Eastern Pacific into the southwest US but some timing differences continue. This system could help bring a bit of moisture midweek with slight chances of showers (~10% chance) around Tuesday and Wednesday. Near normal temperatures will continue through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 17/12Z. Generally SKC thru the valid period. Surface winds light and terrain driven less than 10 kts thru 16/19Z and again aft 17/04Z, otherwise ranging between southwesterly to northwesterly around 10 kts with a few higher gusts this afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Minimum RH values will be in the 20-30 percent range in the valleys into next week. 20-foot winds mainly 15 mph or less, with occasional gusts to 20-25 mph. High temperatures will be below normal through Saturday, warming to near normal levels Sunday into next week. The next chance of precipitation will be around next Tuesday/Wednesday with a slight (~10%) chance of showers. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson