143
FXUS65 KTWC 082044
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
144 PM MST Sat Aug 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Today starts the second half of the 2026 Monsoon.
Expect daily chances of showers and thunderstorms over the 7
days across southeast Arizona with day to day variability in
coverage. High temperatures this weekend will run 5 to 8 degrees
above normal, then around normal next week.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny skies early this afternoon with
temperatures warming to about 5 to 8 degrees above normal as the
high pressure is located along the Four Corners region with easterly
flow aloft prevailing. We are seeing some build-ups starting in the
White Mountains and Sky Islands along with western Pima County.
Drier air along the NM border will tend to limit thunderstorm
activity in that region. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon into the evening
hours, generally focused on Pima, Pinal and Santa Cruz Counties.
While coverage will be below average, any thunderstorms that do form
will be capable of producing gusty winds of 40-50+ mph along with
areas of blowing dust given the higher DCAPE values and inverted-v
soundings. Locally brief heavy rain is also possible but flooding
issues into the evening should be mitigated due to lack of storm
organization/clustering.

From Sunday into the middle of the work week, it`s looking like an
average to above average period for thunderstorm activity as the
high which will initially be by the Four Corners drifts into New
Mexico. East-southeasterly flow will prevail during this pattern
with Monday and Wednesday currently looking like the more "up" days
with better upper level support. The flow at the end of the week
into the weekend will become more southerly to southwesterly with
the potential by next weekend to keep most of the thunderstorms east
of Tucson. Still plenty of time to iron out those details.
Otherwise, with the daily chances of thunderstorms we`ll see the
typical hazards including wind and flooding.

&&

.AVIATION... Valid thru 10/12Z.
Mainly SCT-BKN clouds 8-12k ft AGL with isolated to widely scattered
TRSA btwn 08/22z and 08/05z with gusty erratic winds of 35-45 kts
possible with any thunderstorm mainly from KTUS west. Outside of
storms SFC winds WLY/NWLY at 8-12 kts with occasional afternoon
gusts to 20 kts this afternoon and evening. SFC winds light and
terrain driven after 09/06Z with WLY/NWLY winds resuming aft 09/18Z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect daily afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms this upcoming week with some variation in coverage
each day. Minimum relative humidity values will be 15-30 percent
through the weekend then 20-40 percent next week with temperatures 2-
8 degrees above normal. Outside of thunderstorms, winds terrain
driven to around 10 mph with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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