Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
429 FXUS65 KTWC 080950 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 250 AM MST Mon Jun 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures will remain around today, warming 4 to 8 degree above normal Tuesday into the weekend. Breezy conditions are expected each afternoon. Increasing moisture may start to bring slight chances for showers and thunderstorms by this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Elongated trouging over the western United States will persist through mid-week, while a subtropical ridge will build into the desert southwest from the east through the second half of the week. While the strongest circulation from the trough will remain to the north, it will bring breeziness to southeastern Arizona each afternoon through much of this week. Where winds pick up a bit further, fire weather conditions will be elevated, especially Tuesday through Thursday in Graham county where winds of 15-20 mph will be likely. The aforementioned westward expansion of a subtropical ridge will likely bring a warm-up to southeastern Arizona with forecast highs rising to 4-8 degrees above normal from Tuesday onward. Past Thursday however there is some modest disagreement in guidance regarding high temperatures due to a progressive increase in atmospheric moisture as mean atmospheric flow takes a southerly component. Recent model trends bring an impressive rise in precipitable water over southeastern Arizona, potentially exceeding 150-200 percent of normal by the weekend. The overall blend of models struggles to initially produce a precipitation signal with just slight chances (10-25 percent) beginning to show up in the forecast this weekend, though there will definitely still be room for the forecast to shift in the coming days as the moisture potential evolves. && .AVIATION...Valid through 09/12Z. Light and terrain driven winds this morning becoming southwesterly 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts after 08/17Z. FEW- SCT ceilings mainly above 15k feet with scattered cumulus developing this afternoon mainly near and east of a KTUS-KOLS line. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Winds through the middle of the coming week will be southwesterly (becoming west/northwest Wednesday) 12-18 mph each afternoon with gusts to 25-30 mph. Minimum relative humidity values should remain fairly consistently 8-15 percent across desert locations and 12-18 percent in the mountains, with the potential for increasing relative humidity Friday into next weekend. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible each afternoon through Thursday, especially through the valleys of Graham county where winds should be a bit stronger. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Edwards AVIATION...Edwards FIRE WEATHER...Edwards Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson