Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
802 FXUS65 KTWC 010807 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 107 AM MST Thu Oct 1 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Southeast Arizona will return to a more quiet weather regime with clear skies and below normal afternoon high temperatures expected across the majority of the area today. A building ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest will warm temperatures west of Tucson this weekend. However, a dry backdoor front will move into the area from the east, keep afternoon reading below normal east of Tucson into early next week. This front will result in breezy to locally windy east to southeast winds Friday into Monday of next week. && .DISCUSSION...The first day of October will usher in quiet weather conditions for all of Southeast Arizona. The upper pattern this morning is defined by the departing upper-low moving NE through the Oklahoma panhandle and an amplified ridge of high pressure off the California and Baja MX coastlines. This upper ridge is expected to strengthen as it builds into the Great Basin/Desert Southwest into this weekend. As this occurs, it will force a surface high to dive south along the southern Rockies today and back into Southeast Arizona as a backdoor front Friday into early next week. This will bring about breezy to locally windy southeast to east winds to the majority of the area. The latest 01/06Z NBM 1-D Viewer indicates the strongest winds will occur Friday, with the probability mean for maximum wind gusts for the Tucson International Airport (KTUS) on FRI/SAT/SUN/MON as 42kts/37kts/41kts/36kts. Dust shouldn`t be a problem with this feature given the saturated soils. Otherwise, afternoon high temperatures will warm to near normal west of Tucson by this weekend, but areas east of Tucson will still remain below normal due to the lingering backdoor front. Additional building of the mean ridge the middle of next week and the waning frontal influence will result in above normal temperatures across all of Southeast Arizona starting next Wednesday. && .AVIATION...Valid thru 02/12Z. Clear skies across the majority of Southeast Arizona thru the forecast period. SCT-BKN 8-12k ft AGL will be possible along the AZ/NM border late this afternoon into this evening. SFC winds light and terrain driven thru 01/19Z this afternoon, then NELY/ELY winds less than 12 kts this evening shifting to the E/SE overnight and increasing to 12-14 kts with gusts to 22 kts by daybreak Friday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Southeast Arizona will return to a more quiet weather regime with clear skies and below normal afternoon high temperatures expected across the majority of the area today. A building ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest will warm temperatures west of Tucson this weekend. However, a dry backdoor front will move into the area from the east, keep afternoon reading below normal east of Tucson into early next week. This front will result in breezy to locally windy east to southeast winds Friday into Monday of next week. Minimum RH values 35-45 percent in valley locations and 50-75 percent in the mountains today, generally lowering to 15-25 percent the second half of next week as drier air moves into the region. 20-foot winds will be less than 15 mph today,with gusty east to southeast winds Friday through early next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson