006
FXUS65 KTWC 142040
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
140 PM MST Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures will continue through
Tuesday with temperatures dropping back down to seasonable levels
as deeper atmospheric moisture moves into the area. Southeast
Arizona will experience a mid-grade Monsoon day today, with Tuesday
being more active, then typical day to day variability thereafter
through the rest of the week. Strong and gusty outflow winds with
areas of blowing dust are the primary threat again today, especially
across Graham county to the northeast of Tucson. Showers and
thunderstorm with the potential for heavy rainfall will be present,
especially from Tucson to the south and southeast Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest WV satellite imagery shows our area under NE
flow aloft as a mid-upper level high pressure is located to our NW
from southern California into southern Nevada. Still have some
remnant mid/upper level clouds hanging on across Santa Cruz/Cochise
Counties as a weak mid level disturbance pushes to the southwest.
These clouds have slowed convective development down that way early
this afternoon. Meanwhile, the rest of southeast Arizona is under
clear to partly cloudy skies and visible satellite imagery shows
cloud build-ups on the Sky Islands from Tucson northeastward.
Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms have formed across the White
Mountains and we`ll continue to see those moving to the southwest,
though moisture in this area is much more limited. Given the
moisture content today along with the well mixed dry sub-cloud
layer, strong outflow winds and blowing dust will be the primary
threat with thunderstorms across the region. Latest trends off the
HRRR are latching onto the slower development across SW Cochise
County, with scattered thunderstorms forming initially in the higher
terrain from Tucson eastward then pushing into valleys. Meanwhile,
the activity coming off the White Mountains will push into Graham
County, then tend to lose a bit of their punch as they continue to
move to the SW. By later this evening, more widespread thunderstorm
activity will be focused from northern Sonora into the T.O. Nation
and this will help to reinforce the moisture for Tuesday.

Tuesday is shaping up to be an active day across much of our
forecast area. The combination of favorable easterly flow as the mid-
upper level high shifts into northern Arizona and PWAT values
increasing to about 1.2 to 1.6 inches along with MLCAPE values of
1000 to 1500 J/KG will result in more widespread thunderstorm
development. The higher atmospheric moisture content with a bit
slower storm motion compared to today will result in a transition to
storms with areas of heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential
being the primary threat. 12Z HREF shows neighborhood probabilities
(40-km) of 1" or more of rain at 50-90% with a couple of localized
spots of 10% chance of 3" or more focused on the Tucson Metro and
locales into Santa Cruz and much of Cochise Counties. Given the
higher rainfall rates expected Tuesday with some cell mergers and
the fact that not all areas have seen heavy rain yet, we went ahead
and hoisted a Flash Flood Watch across Central and Eastern Pima
County, Santa Cruz County and Cochise County Tuesday afternoon and
evening. This also closely matches the WPC slight risk for Excessive
Rainfall for Tuesday.

For Wednesday while there is considerable moisture, we are more
likely to be on the subsident backside of an MCV which would tend to
result in less activity compared to Tuesday, especially if Tuesday
is as active as we anticipate it to be.

For the remainder of the week into the weekend, the pattern will be
dominated by an upper low off the central/northern Baja peninsula
moving to the north with southerly flow continuing in our area.
However, some drying is expected during this period with PWAT values
returning to normal levels. Thus, expect typical day-to-day
variability in daily monsoon activity for later in the week and
weekend.

Temperatures will drop to below normal levels Wednesday and
Thursday, then gradually warming back up with highs slightly above
normal this weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/00Z. SCT-BKN 7-11k ft AGL BKN 12-15k
ft AGL thru the period. SCT -TSRA/-SHRA in the White Mountains north
of KSAD and along higher terrain from KOLS through KDUG moving W-SW
across Southeast Arizona thru 15/04Z. Thunderstorms possible in KTUS
vicinity between 14/22Z and 15/04Z. Another round of SCT TSRA/SHRA
is expected aft 15/19Z for much of southeast Arizona. Wind gusts of
40-50 kts with 1-3SM VSBY in BLDU are possible with the
thunderstorms today, especially near KSAD. Otherwise, SFC winds
mainly less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A more active monsoon pattern this week.
Deeper atmospheric moisture moving into the will increase the
potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding,
especially on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain above normal through
Tuesday, then drop back down to near or slightly below normal by mid
week. Winds will remain westerly from 10-15 mph, with occasional
gusts at or above 25 mph. Afternoon RH values in the low lying areas
will be between 10-15% this afternoon, then 20-30% through the
remainder of the week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for
AZZ502>504-507-508-512>515.

&&

$$

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