465
FXUS65 KTWC 142240
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
340 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above
normal today and Saturday. A low pressure system is then expected to
impact the region this weekend, bringing chances for light showers,
cooler temperatures, and breezy conditions. Unsettled conditions are
expected to continue next week along with below normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Big picture for this forecast cycle is the continued
focus on a pattern change resulting in increasing chances for valley
rain, high elevation mountain snow, and breezy and gusty conditions
as a series of storm systems move over portions of the Desert
Southwest.

The first of these storm systems will be moving into southern
California before ejecting into the Great Basin over the upcoming
weekend. Only the fringe of this system will realistically be
affecting southeast Arizona late Saturday through Monday with most
of the impacts focused to our north and west where better storm
dynamics will reside. However, expect increasing clouds with breezy
and gusty west to southwest winds. The strongest winds are expected
south and east of Tucson where winds may be sustained to around 15
to 25 mph with gusts between 25 and 35 mph. Light valley rain
showers are expected (around a tenth of an inch), and perhaps a
trace of snow on the top of the highest mountain peaks across
southeast Arizona.

Resulting weather related impacts with this first system are
expected to only be minor/nuisance in nature from the gusty winds
and light rainfall. Winds may knock over garbage cans or lawn
furniture and loft dust at times. Where light rain falls there
could be slick roads from the buildup of oil residue after the
prolonged period without any rain. Noticeably cooler temperatures
will also settle in behind this system with high temperatures
expected to dip into the upper 60s to low 70s for Sunday and
Monday with lows in the mid to upper 30s in the eastern valleys
to low 50s from Tucson west by Monday morning.

The next system is expected in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. At
this time, the trajectory for this next system appears to be ideal
for more widespread valley rainfall but happening over a few days
time. There are early indications depicting that rainfall amounts
could range between a quarter of an inch to half an inch with
isolated pockets of three quarters of an inch in the mountains. The
cooler temperatures will also help bring snow levels down to around
7,000 feet with light snow totals of an inch or two for the
Catalinas and Sky Islands and 2-4 inches for the White Mountains.
High temperatures will dip into the 60s with low temperatures
around freezing to the south and east of Tucson.

The second system may end up being more impactful than the last
with more minor to moderate impacts. Valley rainfall with this
next system could amount enough to allow water to run through
normally dry washes. Snow levels could come down enough to result
in a few impacts for high elevation roadways in the White
Mountains. Finally, there is increasing likelihood for more
widespread freezing temperatures to the south and east of Tucson
in the wake of this next system. Most likely minimum temperatures
right now remain above freezing, but there is quite a bit of
uncertainty in forecast minimum temperatures. The NBM gives a 60%
chance of reaching 28 degrees on Thursday morning in Willcox and
nearly a 70% on Friday morning. Something to keep a close eye on.

There is also the potential for yet another storm system that could
impact Southeast Arizona sometime late next week into next weekend.
This system would also likely be on the colder side again bringing
reinforcing cool air in its wake with chances for valley rain and
mountain snow. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6 to 10 day
outlook is consistent with this scenario depicting below normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation indicating the
continuation of this more active pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/00Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions thru 15/18Z, then SCT-BKN clouds at 7k-
10k ft AGL thru the remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind less
than 12 kts thru the forecast period, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction
thru 15/02Z and a SLY/SWLY direction aft 15/19Z. SFC wind variable
in direction between 15/02Z and 15/19Z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and high temperatures 5-8 degrees
above normal will continue through Saturday. A storm system will
begin to move into the area from the west late Saturday through
Sunday, resulting in a chance of showers and thunderstorms and
cooler temperatures. Breezy southwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts
to 30-35 mph are expected on Sunday. Minimum RH values in the
valleys of 20-25 percent and 25-30 percent in the mounatins will
occur Saturday, with Min RH values well above critical levels Sunday
through all of next week at 33-43 percent in the valleys and 50-60+
percent in the mountains. Another storm system is expected to move
into the area late Monday into Tuesday, continuing through at least
Wednesday of next week. This system will bring another round of
precipitation across southeast Arizona, along with breezy south to
southwest winds Tuesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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