240
FXUS65 KTWC 302001
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
101 PM MST Thu Jul 30 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a downturn in thunderstorm activity through
Saturday with just isolated storms south and east of Tucson. Storm
coverage and chances increase as early as Sunday, but especially
next week. High temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above normal into
the weekend with an Extreme Heat Warning in effect through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest IR/WV satellite show mostly sunny skies across
southeast Arizona with just some cumulus clouds starting to form on
the sky islands south and east of Tucson. The mid/upper level high
this afternoon is across New Mexico with light southeasterly
steering flow. Given the moisture profile across the region with
PWAT values ranging from 1.1 to 1.6 inches, there will be enough
instability for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
into evening mainly south and east of Tucson, although we can`t rule
out a stray storm or two as far north and west as the Tucson area.
More favorable upper level pattern will be across northern Sonora
south of Cochise County where an MCS is expected to form this
evening with the northern parts of that MCS perhaps impacting
Cochise County later this evening, so that`s something we`ll need to
keep an eye on. Main concerns with storm activity today will be
gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

As the mid/upper level high expands westward into AZ Friday and
Saturday, temperatures will continue to nudge even higher with heat
continuing to be the main weather story through the weekend.
Saturday continues to look like the hottest day with a forecast high
in Tucson of 112 degrees. We should note that if it hits 112 degrees
on Saturday, that would also tie the monthly record for August high
temperature. See climate section below for additional information
regarding record temperatures.

As the aforementioned high settles across Arizona Friday and
Saturday, these two days will have minimal thunderstorm activity for
most of our forecast area, as the combination of subsidence and some
drying will keep isolated storms mostly limited to locales along the
AZ/NM border and along the Int`l border in Cochise County.

For Sunday into next week, the high will start to weaken, and the
flow will become more northeasterly and then easterly which allow
for a ramp-up in thunderstorm activity with a more active monsoon
period expected, especially from Monday onward. Expect modest
`cooling` of temperatures next Tuesday through Thursday to about 3
to 6 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 01/00Z.
SCT-BKN 8k-12k ft AGL continue into this evening south and east of
KTUS. Isolated TSRA will be possible 30/21Z-31/03Z with KDUG
terminal having the best chance to be impacted by TSRA. KOLS could
see TSRA as well, but confidence is lower so have not included
mention in TAF. Gusty SFC winds near TSRA with wind gusts up to 35
kts will be possible, otherwise SFC winds NWLY 6-10 kts thru 31/03Z
with occasional higher, then becoming light and variable thereafter
with WLY/NWLY winds resuming again aft 31/18Z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will remain well above normal
this through Sunday with an Extreme Heat Warning in effect through
Sunday. Expect daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms mainly south and east of Tucson through the weekend
with some day to day variability in coverage. Early next week storm
coverage and chances are expected to increase. Any thunderstorm will
bring a threat of severe, erratic wind gusts as well as brief heavy
rainfall and an isolated threat of flash flooding. Min RH values
will be 10-20 percent through Saturday then 15-30 percent Sunday
into next week. Winds will be terrain driven 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ501>509.

&&

$$


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