543
FXUS65 KTWC 090945
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
245 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure settles into the region this week. This
will result in dry conditions and high temperatures warming to above
normal levels through this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A clear sky prevailed across southern Arizona this
morning as high pressure continues to build in over the state. No
change in the dry and warmer temperatures we`ve been talking about
with highs today thru Saturday running 10 to 15 degrees above
seasonal normals with a few low desert locals near record highs
late in the week. See climate section below.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 10/12Z.
SKC. SFC winds vrbl and terrain driven less than 8 kts thru
09/17z and then again after 10/04z. At other times, SFC winds
WLY/NWLY 8-12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected the next 7 days. A
warming trend continues through the week where high starting
today will run 8 to 15 degrees above normal. 20-foot winds will
generally be 15 mph or less and terrain driven throughout the
week. Minimum RH values in the valleys and mountains 16-26
percent with good overnight recoveries at least 35 percent in the
mountains and over 45 percent in the valleys for the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record or near record high temperatures for December 10-12

Date                      Dec 10         Dec 11        Dec 12
                       FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR
Tucson Intl Airport     78  82/1950    79  83/1939    78  79/2004
Ajo                     80  84/1939    81  85/1950    80  83/1995
Organ Pipe Cactus       81  83/2015    83  83/1995    81  83/2010

NBM probabilities to tie or break record highs for December 10-12

                         Dec 10          Dec 11        Dec 12
                        TIE/BREAK       TIE/BREAK     TIE/BREAK
Tucson Intl Airport       0%/ 0%          0%/ 0%       37%/25%
Ajo                       0%/ 0%          0%/ 0%       10%/ 4%
Organ Pipe Cactus        28%/16%         33%/20%       32%/21%

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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