580
FXUS65 KTWC 252208
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
308 PM MST Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry, warm, and breezy this afternoon. Breezy to windy
conditions expected this weekend due to an approaching weather
system. Temperatures will trend cooler by the end of the weekend and
then warming back up by the middle of the new week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The main story over the weekend will be an uptick in
winds due to an approaching dry weather system along with a brief
cooling trend. The main impacts from this system will be increased
fire weather concerns (refer to fire weather discussion below) along
with dust prone areas to the east of Tucson seeing occasional
visibility reductions from patchy blowing dust.

A trough moving onto the Pacific coast will continue into the Great
Basin over the weekend resulting in a gradual tightening of the
pressure gradient aloft along with a strong upper jet with speeds of
of 50-70 kts at 500 mb. Breezy winds aloft have begun picking up and
have are already translating to a breezy afternoon across southeast
portions of Arizona today, and similar conditions can be expected
again tomorrow. However, more of these winds will translate down to
the surface Sunday when the jet is maximized. Winds of 15-25 mph and
gusts up to 45 mph are possible with the strongest winds forecast
across Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee counties Sunday afternoon,
especially along and near the New Mexico state line. Combined with
the preexisting very dry conditions and high to very high fire
danger, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning for Sunday.

Sunday and Monday temperatures will be cooler with highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s across southeast Arizona. Breezy winds may
linger through Monday afternoon as the weather system exits the
area. A warming trend is forecast at this point, but some ensemble
members suggest a trough may be approaching heading into next
weekend bringing chances for showers and cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 27/00Z.
SKC through the forecast period. SWLY winds this afternoon at 12-18
kts with gusts to 30 kts. Light winds generally under 12 kts after
26/03Z. Similar wind speeds can be expected tomorrow afternoon.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An approaching weather system will increase winds
resulting in near critical to critical fire weather conditions
through the weekend. Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon
areawide due to the uptick in afternoon breezes. Then, near critical
fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow across Cochise county
and eastern Santa Cruz county as well as at exposed ridgetops.

For Sunday, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning from 10 am to 8 pm including eastern portions of zone 151
along with zones 152, 153, and 154. This area includes the Sky
Islands of Southeast Arizona, Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Santa Cruz,
and eastern portions of Pinal and Pima counties. Critical fire
weather conditions are forecast Sunday with southwest winds of 15-25
mph and gusts to 45 mph. Although cooler temperatures are forecast
Sunday into Monday, moisture will be lacking and minimum relative
humidities should remain in the 6 to 10 percent range. Breezy
conditions will linger on Monday but should remain below critical
levels.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ151>154.

&&

$$

DVS

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