489
FXUS65 KTWC 270901
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
201 AM MST Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS... Well above normal temperatures are expected through
the coming weekend. The hottest days are expected to be Today and
Saturday when an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect from Tucson
westward.

&&

.DISCUSSION... High pressure contiues to dominate the region
leading to record breaking high temperatures. Today and Saturday,
Tucson is forecast to reach 107 degrees with the surrounding area
between 100-111 degrees. This high pressure pattern is expected to
persist for the next several days however today and tomorrow will
be the hottest days. HeatRisk is forecast to be Major to locally Extreme
meaning that anyone without proper cooling and/ or adequate
hydration is at risk for heat illness.

Looking ahead, the Climate Prediction Center and longer range
models are forecasting above normal temperatures for the 8-14 day
forecast as well as the 3-4 week outlooks. So we might be talking
heat for a while longer.

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 28/12Z.
SKC until 27/18Z then FEW clouds at 9 to 12k feet through 28/04Z
foucsed KTUS southward. SKC after 28/04Z. SFC winds generally
remain under 10 kts and follow diurnal trends. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions and hot temperatures this week,
with the hottest days today and Saturday. 20-foot winds generally
less than 15 mph with an easterly component through the weekend.
Min relative humidities will be in the teens for the lower
elevations and the middle 20s for the higher elevations.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS

DATE                         Sep 27           Sep 28           Sep 29
                          FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       107 103/2023     107 103/1994     104 101/2010
AJO                       110 106/1960     112 106/2020     106 107/2020
KITT PEAK                  90  84/2005      91  84/2009      87  83/2009
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         110 107/1994     111 107/1992     104 106/2020
PICACHO PEAK              107 105/2022     109 104/2009     105 104/2020
SAFFORD AG STATION        103 100/2005     102 100/2005      99 101/1998
SIERRA VISTA FD            97  96/2023      96  95/2023      93  99/1917
TOMBSTONE                  97  99/1942      96  98/1917      94 102/1917
WILLCOX                    98  98/1956      97  98/1956      94  99/2009


&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MST
Saturday for AZZ501-502-504-505.

&&

$$

Malarkey

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