844
FXUS65 KTWC 152108
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
208 PM MST Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot conditions will continue across southeast
Arizona through the week with another round of extreme heat late
this week. Temperatures will generally be 5 to 12 degrees above
normal this week with a bit more cooling next weekend.  Increased
breezes early in the week due to a passing weather system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies this afternoon from Tucson westward with
partly cloudy skies to the south and east of Tucson. In these
locales, particularly in Cochise County, mid level moisture has
increased enough (PWAT ~0.7") for cloud build-ups especially in the
Chiricahuas. We`ve been watching this on webcam imagery and have
seen some virga but little if any precipitation is reaching the
ground. We`ve also yet to see any lightning strikes. We can`t
continue to rule out a dry lightning strike or two but we`ll
continue to mainly see some virga and gusty outflow winds from any
of the stronger build-ups in Cochise County. The rest of the area
will just be hot with today being the hottest day of this current
stretch.

The Extreme Heat Warning continues Monday, though temperatures will
lower a couple of degrees today with a forecast high of 110 in
Tucson. This cooling is due to a trough to our north that will knock
down heights/thicknesses slightly as the high retreats
slightly south. A slight uptick in afternoon breezes is expected
Monday.

For Tuesday, the trough will make its closest approach which will
help knock temperatures down another couple of degrees. The slightly
tighter pressure gradient will result in increased breezes,
most notably in the Upper Gila River Valley where the mean flow will
favor stronger winds right through the valley with gusts around 30
mph.

On Wednesday, breezes taper off with the trough moving away.
Temperatures will be similar to Tuesday.

Latest ensemble guidance continues to indicate the subtropical high
strengthening over our region Thursday into Friday. Right now,
Thursday looks to be the hottest day and temperatures have trended
upward with a forecast high of 113 in Tucson and widespread major
HeatRisk. We`ve gone ahead and hoisted an Extreme Heat Watch for our
valley locations both Thursday and Friday.

For next weekend into early the following week, the high will shift
a bit more south and eastward as some troughiness encroaches into
the Great Basin. Ensemble mean PWAT values gradually trend upward
during this period especially to the south/southeast of Tucson.
There is a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms along the
Int`l border in Santa Cruz and Cochise County starting next weekend.
Certainly not expecting a gangbusters start to the monsoon activity
as initial moisture pushes will be shallow but we`ll get there.
Temperatures by next Sunday will cool off to more seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 17/00Z.
SKC thru much of the valid pd with SCT 10-12k ft AGL mainly
SE of KTUS thru 16/05Z. Cloud build-ups continue especially in/near
the Chiricahua mtns thru 16/02Z with a SLGT CHC of a dry TS. SFC
winds thru 16/04Z will be WLY/NWLY at 8-14 kts with gusts to around
20 kts and 12-16 kts with gusts to 25 kts at KSAD. SFC winds aft
16/04Z will be terrain driven and less than 10 kts thru 15/18z. SFC
winds become WLY/NWLY at 8-14 kts again with gusts around 20 kts and
13-17 kts with gusts to 25 kts at KSAD. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and hot conditions are expected across
southeast Arizona this week. Generally single digit
min RH values in the valleys, with mountain locations in the 10-18
percent range. There are slight chances (less than 10 percent)
for dry lightning this afternoon in Cochise County. These dry
lightning chances can also bring erratic and gusty winds of 30 mph
or higher. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less from
Tucson westward, with occasional afternoon/early evening gusts to
around 20 mph due to the strong surface heating. East of Tucson,
breezy afternoon and early evening 20-foot winds are expected in
the Gila River Valley this afternoon with peak wind speeds of 12-18
mph and gusts to around 30 mph. Expect similar to slightly stronger
speeds from Tucson eastward Monday and Tuesday as a weak weather
system moves through. The strongest winds will again be in the
upper Gila River valley near Safford, with the possibility of a
few hours of near critical to brief critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ501>509.

Extreme Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening
for AZZ501>509.

&&

$$

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