546
FXUS65 KTWC 071011
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
311 AM MST Sun Jun 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

High temperatures will remain near to slightly
above normal through the the weekend and next week. Breezy
conditions are expected each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A Pacific Northwest trough will continue to drift inland today
with an embedded shortwave within its base crossing southern
California into the desert southwest. This active flow aloft
will tighten a surface pressure gradient and bring breezy
southwesterly winds across southeastern Arizona this afternoon
and evening. Additionally the southerly low-level flow
associated with this synoptic setup will usher in a plume of
mid-level moisture through Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee
counties. The resulting instability profile (100-250 J/kg of
MUCAPE) will be on the low side but recent high-resolution
models have produced some weak convective signals this
afternoon/evening. The 00Z HREF suite includes low but non-zero
measurable precipitation chances, with the greater impact from
any shower or virga more likely coming from a strong outflow
wind and blowing dust. This probability at any one location is
low but an isolated 35-45 mph wind gust and a blowing dust
threat can`t be ruled out. Additional cloud build- ups are
possible on Monday but the already modest moisture profile looks
a bit weaker and less conducive to convective activity.

Broad troughing remains centered over the Great Basin to
Northern Rockies through the first half of the week, keeping
southeastern Arizona under southwesterly flow. Though no day
truly stands out at this time for critical conditions, fire
weather concerns will occur daily with at least breezy winds and
very dry relative humidities.

Looking towards the end of the week there continues to be a
signal for increasing moisture over the region after the trough
to the north exits and a subtropical high becomes centered over
northern Mexico. The grand ensemble precipitable water mean
reaches 1 inch by the coming weekend, though at this lead time
there remains moderate disagreement between models. This
uncertainty keeps the forecast mainly dry for now through next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 08/12Z.

SCT-BKN high level cirrus through the forecast period. FEW-SCT
10-14k feet AGL clouds will develop east of a KALK-KSAD line
after 20Z, with pockets of virga and gusty outflow winds
possible into the early evening. Otherwise surface winds today
will become southwesterly and increase to 10-15 kts with gusts
14-20 kts. Winds become light and terrain driven tonight after
08/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Winds through the middle of the coming week will be
southwesterly 12-18 mph each afternoon with gusts to 25-30 mph.
Minimum relative humidity values should remain fairly
consistently 8-15 percent across desert locations and 12-18
percent in the mountains, with the potential for increasing
relative humidity Friday into next weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Edwards
AVIATION...Edwards
FIRE WEATHER...Edwards

Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson