Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
679 FXUS65 KTWC 272032 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 132 PM MST Wed Aug 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Low grade monsoon forecast with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms favoring areas south and east of Tucson. Below normal high temperatures today, then trending warmer into this upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION...The significant cloud deck has pushed into western Graham and Cochise counties and will continue to push east through the evening. The clouds and plentiful moisture in the area is in part thanks to Tropical Storm Juliette that continues its northward track and on off shore low pressure system that is steering the tropical moisture into Arizona. Although there is a fair bit of moisture in the area as observed by the 18Z TUS sounding with a 1.61 inch PWAT, these clouds will stick around and inhibit the chances for most showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Instability is low, less than 1000J/kg of MU CAPE and DCAPE. As of noon, there are a few isolated showers popping up east of Tucson. A secondary impact from this cloud cover will keep temperature "cooler". High temperatures today are forecast to be around 90-95 degrees in the lower elevations and 65-70 in the higher elevations. Over the next few days, Tropical Storm Juliette will move northward and then essentially get absorbed by the strong low pressure system moving southward from the north Pacific. The absorption of the tropical storm and subsequent moisture will help maintain a saturated environment here in southern Arizona allowing for daily chances for afternoon storms and showers mainly south and east of Tucson through Labor Day. Temperatures over the next several days will gradually warm back into the low 100s by the weekend and then hover around 95-100 through next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 29/00Z. SCT to OVC clouds AOA 8k to 10k ft AGL will continue until aft 28/07Z when clouds will dissipate to become FEW to SCT AOA 10k to 13k ft AGL. Tomorrow afternoon clouds will increase to SCT to BKN by 28/19Z AOA 10k to 13k ft AGL and persist for the remainder of the forecast period. Slight chance for isolated to scattered storms and showers now through 28/03Z. There is a slight chance for isolated to scattered storms tomorrow afternoon as well from 28/20 through the end of the forecast period. With storms and showers expect brief, moderate rainfall and breezy, erratic winds up to 30kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF Amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect daily chances for rain showers and thunderstorms into this upcoming weekend. Temperatures will be running near normal today becoming slightly above normal by the weekend. Winds will generally remain less than 15 mph with typical afternoon gustiness. Min RHs will be 25-35 percent in the low elevations and 40-55 percent in the mountains through Saturday then min RHs drop to 15-25 percent in the low elevations and to 20-35 percent in the mountains through Labor Day. && && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Malarkey Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson