308
FXUS65 KTWC 142135
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 PM MST Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Temperatures remain above average through the weekend with an
Excessive Heat warning in effect for portions of southeastern
Arizona. Temperatures decrease a bit early next week before likely
rising again by Thursday. Moisture may begin to increase late next
week which would bring the potential for more active weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

While an upper ridge is centered to the south, a shortwave and
jet streak were crossing the northern periphery. This shortwave
has pushed earlier moisture out of southeastern Arizona, while
additionally creating breezy conditions in far eastern portions of
the southeast. Mid-level heights will rise following the exit of
this shortwave, which will bring temperatures up a few degrees
again this weekend.

The Red Flag Warning remains in effect this afternoon for dry and
breezy conditions in lower elevations of Cochise, Graham, and
Greenlee counties. Then this weekend, an Excessive Heat Warning is
in effect for portions of southeastern Arizona that will see
afternoon highs generally exceed 105 degrees.

Into early next week, flow aloft will strengthen as western CONUS
troughing nudges out the southern ridge. This will bring
temperatures down a few degrees (though still likely remaining
above normal) as well as likely increase winds Monday afternoon.
There remains a bit of disagreement in the surface wind potential
with the GFS MOS being more aggressive than other guidance.
Current NBM guidance for Monday ranges from 10-17 kts with a few
isolated spots reaching 20 kts, which looks reasonable given the
uncertainty between more deterministic guidance. If winds do come
up bit more then fire weather would be a concern.

Confidence is increasing in the development of broad, anomalously
strong ridging over the central to eastern CONUS by Thursday.
With southeastern Arizona looking to be on the western periphery,
high temperatures should rise into excessive thresholds again
Thursday and Friday. Current NBM probabilities have even the
coldest solutions (NBM 5th percentile) exceeding 100-105 Thursday
afternoon. Under this ridging, low to mid level southeasterly flow
should develop and begin to bring in richer moisture. GEFS-EPS
both indicate rising probabilities for precipitable water
exceeding 1 inch from late this next week through next weekend.
Though still just beyond the reach of the seven day forecast, the
NBM is bringing at least slight chances of precipitation into
southeastern Arizona by next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/00Z.

SKC through the forecast period. SFC winds SWLY/WLY 10 to 20 kts and
gusts to around 30 kts through 15/03Z. Terminals east of KALK and
KE77 can expect winds on the higher end. SFC winds then subside to
generally less than 12 kts. Tomorrow, SFC winds NWLY/WLY after
15/16Z with speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts around 20 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and dry conditions continue this weekend. Winds should be
lighter but typical afternoon breeziness is still expected.
Minimum relative humidities this weekend will range from 4 to 9
percent in the lower elevations and 9 to 14 percent in the
mountains. Winds should come up on Monday, though at this moment
still look likely to remain just below critical thresholds. This
day will need watching for fire weather conditions if winds
increase.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM MST Sunday
for AZZ504>506-509.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ152.

Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Saturday for
AZZ501-502.

&&

$$

Public...Edwards
Aviation...Strongman
Fire Weather....Edwards

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