Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
443 FXUS65 KTWC 030842 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 142 AM MST Sat Oct 3 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Breezy to windy east winds expected across much of southeastern Arizona through Monday. Temperatures through this period will be near to just below normal, with some warming by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure is in place over the Southwest and will remain over the region for much of the forecast period. At the surface an easterly pressure gradient is still in place and will lead to breezy easterly winds through Monday. Expect speeds 15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph. Isolated areas such as southern Cochise County, the Catalina Mountains, and the Gila River Valley could see gusts 40-50 mph, especially Sunday which is when winds are expected to be strongest. High temperatures will be around normal to just below normal with low temperatures staying elevated thanks to the downslope easterly winds. Monday models show a modest increase in moisture just to the south in Sonora from Hurricane Sarah, which will be a few hundred miles west of Cabo. PWATs may increase to 1.5" in far western Pima County, but at this time NBM Pops are below 10 percent. This time of year with no synoptic scale influence surface heating is not enough to form thunderstorms most of the time. As a result rain chances stay south of the border with some buildups possible over the higher terrain. With the ridge in place temperatures warm to a few degrees above normal Tuesday into the end of next week. Also can expect another round of breezy easterly winds starting next week Thursday. && .AVIATION...Valid thru 04/12Z. FEW-SCT clouds 5k-8k ft south and east of Tucson, otherwise mainly SKC. East surface winds will continue through the TAF period with wind speeds 15-20 kts and gusts 25-30 kts. Speeds decrease to 10-15 kts after 04/00Z then increase again to 12-18 kts after 04/06Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Elevated easterly winds expected to continue through Monday across much of southeastern Arizona. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph likely, with ridge tops exposed to easterly flow seeing 40-50 mph gusts at times. Stronger winds in eastern areas such as Graham and Cochise counties possible on Sunday. Minimum relative humidity values will remain 30-40 percent in lower elevations and above 50 percent in high elevation terrain. Some drying possible by mid- week next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson