046
FXUS65 KTWC 230912
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
212 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue
through the early morning hours then decrease from west to east
late this morning into the afternoon. High temps cool to below
normal today and Monday, then begin a warming trend through the
end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms
extending from Nogales/Sierra Vista, through Tucson, up to Pinal
County is slowly moving northeastward with some isolated shower
activity building in behind. This activity is expected to continue
through the early morning hours as a closed low moves through
central Arizona into the Four Corners region. Rainfall will be
light to moderate with an additional tenth of an inch possible on
top of what`s already fallen in the past 12 hours. Webcams on Mt
Lemmon showed that rain changed over to snow around 1 AM in
Summerhaven. 1"-2" of snow will be possible in the Catalinas
through the morning hours and 1"-4" in the Pinaleno and White
Mountains above 7500 feet. Late this morning into the afternoon
shower activity will dissipate from west to east as synoptic scale
forcing wanes with the low moving into Colorado. Best precip chances
this afternoon will mainly be north and east of Tucson. The low
also ushers in a cooler air mass leading to high temperatures
today 7-10 degrees below normal.

Monday temperatures stay below normal as well, although 2-3 degrees
warmer than today. Behind the low a ridge develops just off the
coast of California, which will lead to a warmup Tuesday into
Friday. High temperatures warm to a few degrees above normal
Wednesday through Friday. Morning temperatures will be on the
cool side with valleys east of Tucson seeing temperatures at or
near freezing, especially in the Sulphur Springs Valley. Next
weekend into early next week ensembles show another Pacific trough
potentially moving through, which could bring another round of
precipitation and cooler temperatures. Right now the NBM
introduces PoPs Sunday, but lots of uncertainty this far out with
the timing of the trough.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/12Z.
BKN ceilings 4k-8k ft AGL thru this afternoon, then slowly
dissipating after 24/03Z. MVFR cigs will be possible at KOLS and
KDUG through the afternoon and at KTUS in showers this morning.
Scattered SHRA with embedded TSRA will be possible at all
terminals through 23/15Z, then activity is expected to dissipate
from west to east. Sfc winds will be southeasterly 5-10 kts this
morning becoming westerly this afternoon and early evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue this morning then dissipate from west to east this
afternoon. Light mountain snow will also be possible above 7500
feet. Temperatures will be below normal today and Monday, then a
warming trend takes over. Min RH will be 30-60 percent through
Tuesday, dropping to 20-30 percent thereafter. 20 foot winds
follow normal diurnal trends with speeds 5 to 10 mph and
occasional afternoon gusts.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Hardin

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