377
FXUS65 KTWC 131842
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1142 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

High temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above
normal through Friday. A low pressure system is then expected to
impact the region this weekend, bringing chances for showers,
cooler temperatures, and breezy conditions. Unsettled conditions
are expected to continue next week along with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A push of high level moisture influenced by the cut off low, that
is currently off the coast of northern California, is bringing
high cirrus clouds today across the region. Temperatures this
afternoon and through Saturday will remain above normal due to the
weak ridging still overhead southern Arizona.

While models are still not in exact agreement and variations in
models runs continue, trends suggest the aforementioned cut off
low will follow the California coast eventually moving inland
near Southern California Saturday night and push into Northern
Arizona Sunday afternoon. Based on these trends, adverse weather
in southern Arizona will not arrive until Saturday night/ Sunday
morning. The temperature trend will follow the eventual timing of
this trough, with unseasonably warm temperatures now looking
likely through Saturday, then cooler Sunday.

Due to the location of the low, staying more in northern Arizona,
supporting dynamics for higher precipitation totals will also
stay in northern Arizona. Total rainfall amounts in southern
Arizona are now looking to range from one-tenth to four-tenths of
an inch with locally up to half an inch in far western Pima
county, northern Graham and Greenlee counties and in the
mountains. Chances for snow has dwindled as the snow level has
risen to greater than 9,500 ft. Any chances for snow will be in
the White Mountains with only trace amounts expected.

Next week still looks to be active as ensemble mean heights show a
series of troughs moving through the southwest region. The 6-10
day CPC outlook subsequently advertises likely chances for above
normal precipitation and below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/00Z.
FEW to SCT clouds AOA 20k to 25k ft AGL through 14/07Z becoming
FEW AOA 25k ft AGL. SFC winds will be from the northwest generally
less than 12 kts shifting to the southeast aft 14/04Z. Clouds
become SKC to FEW by 14/22Z. SFC winds shift back to the
northwest by 14/22Z continuing through the remainder of the
forecast period. No precipitation is forecast for this forecast
period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and dry through Friday with light terrain driven winds under
12 mph. A low pressure system will cross the region this weekend
and bring cooler temperatures, increased winds, and chances for
showers. Shower chances may arrive as early as early Saturday for
areas west of Tucson, but greater chances should be delayed until
late Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Malarkey

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