Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
487 FXUS65 KTWC 282035 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 135 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Above normal high temperatures continue through the weekend, cooling to near to slightly below normal levels next week. Dry conditions through the weekend before a weather system moves into the Four Corners Sunday night and Monday, resulting in a slight chance of showers in the White Mountains. Dry weather returns next Tuesday and Wednesday. There is the potential for another weather system late next week resulting in precipitation chances. && .DISCUSSION...Sunny skies prevail this afternoon with above normal temperatures under dry westerly flow aloft. This westerly flow will be with us once again Saturday with high temperatures a couple of degrees lower than today but still slightly above normal for this time of year. A weather system will skirt on through the Four Corners region Sunday night into Monday with the models continuing to back off on any impactful weather as this passes through. With the bulk of the moisture and dynamics remaining to our north, not much more than a slight chance of a rain or snow shower in the White Mountains with dry conditions expected elsewhere. Once the trough passes, temperatures will lower early next week to near to slightly below normal levels. Dry weather is expected Tuesday and likely Wednesday as well before a more uncertain and lower confidence weather pattern takes hold across the southwest US. Ensembles are in good agreement in dropping a northern stream system from the Great Basin southward and potentially interacting with a subtropical system off of Baja. Lots of uncertainty regarding the details on the evolution of this pattern and resulting weather impacts across southeast Arizona later next week. Current NBM PoPs of 20-30 percent Wednesday night through Thursday and then tailing back thereafter are reasonable. && .AVIATION...Valid through 30/00Z. SKC-SCT clouds AOA 15k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC wind 12 kts or less thru the valid period, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions through Sunday, with a slight chance (10-15 percent) of valley rain/mountain snow Sunday night and Monday in the White Mountains northeast of Safford. Above normal high temperatures continue through Sunday, cooling to near to slightly below normal next week. Min RH values will continue to be in the 20- 30 percent range through the middle of next week. 20-foot sustained winds of 15 mph or less are expected the next 7 days, along with normal diurnal wind trends. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson