Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
214 FXUS65 KTWC 180905 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 205 AM MST Sat Oct 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS...One more day of below normal temperatures today then temperatures warm to normal to a few degrees above normal Sunday into the middle of next week. Dry conditions will also prevail through Tuesday with a slight chance of rain in the White Mountains Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...Skies are clear across the region as a trough exits and Arizona moves into the Texas Panhandle. In the wake of the trough ridging will build to the south with a closed cutoff low sitting off the west coast of Baja. The upper air pattern will remain in this state into early next week. The proximity of the high will lead to temperatures warming to normal or a few degrees above normal Sunday into the middle of next week. Tucson will see chances of 90 degree highs each day Monday into Wednesday with the best chances Tuesday. Current NBM probabilities for 90 or greater are 10 percent Sunday and Monday, 50 percent Tuesday, and 25 percent Wednesday. Tuesday the cutoff low begins to moves onshore, opens up Wednesday and moves through central and northern Arizona. Southerly/southwesterly flow ahead of the low brings in modest moisture with PWAT values 150-200 percent of normal across most of Arizona. However with the current track of the low NBM PoPs are fairly low for southeast Arizona with just slight chances in the White Mountains Wednesday. The low will also bring breezy winds Wednesday and a small cooldown late in the work week. After the trough passes ensembles show weak shortwave ridging which will lead to another warmup to start next weekend. && .AVIATION...Valid through 19/12Z. SKC through 18/18Z, then SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL moving in from the south through the end of the period. SFC winds NW at 5-10 kts this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise SFC winds variable and under 8 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Minimum RH values will be in the 15-25 percent range in the valleys into next week. 20-foot winds mainly 15 mph or less, with occasional gusts to 20-25 mph. Chance for breezy winds Wednesday as a weather system moves through. High temperatures will be below normal today, warming to normal or just above normal levels Sunday into next week. Expect dry conditions over the next 7 days with the exception of the White Mountains Wednesday, which will see a 20 percent chance for showers. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson