582
FXUS65 KTWC 270847
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
147 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal high temperatures continue through Friday.
Cooler temperatures this weekend with highs near normal. Additional
cooling and slightly below normal temperatures early to mid next
week. Dry conditions through Sunday before a weather system moves to
the northeast resulting in a slight chance of showers Sunday night
and Monday mainly east of Tucson. Dry weather returns next Tuesday
into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The large scale pattern currently has a ridge of high
pressure centered over northern Mexico with the ridge axis extending
northwest through Arizona into the western Great Basin. The ridge
will begin to break down on Friday and zonal flow will prevail
across the desert southwest over the weekend as a storm system moves
into the Pacific northwest. This system will move into the Four
Corners Sunday night and into northern New Mexico on Monday before
rapidly moving eastward into the southern plains. Weak shortwave
ridging then takes place Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.

High level clouds continue to push north/northeast under the ridge
axis across southeast Arizona early this morning. These clouds will
stick around into Friday before clearing out. High temperatures will
top out at 4-7 degrees above normal both today and Friday.

High temperatures will lower to 1-3 degrees above normal over the
weekend, as the ridge breaks down and zonal flow prevails. This
translates into lower 70s from Tucson westward and in the mid to
upper 60s across the lower elevations of eastern Santa Cruz,
Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties. Dry conditions will prevail
across southeast Arizona through Sunday afternoon.

The Ensembles/Deterministic models continue to back away from any
notable impacts with the system early next week. Currently there is
a slight chance (10-15 percent) of valley rain/mountain snow mainly
east of Tucson. The trend is downward in regards to precipitation
chances. However, high temperatures are still expected to cool 4-7
degrees on Monday (compared to Sunday) on the back side of the
system, with highs 2-4 degrees below normal early next week. There
will also be elevated west/northwest winds to the east of Tucson
Sunday and Monday, with wind speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around
30 mph.

Dry conditions return next Tuesday into Wednesday with shortwave
ridging and highs right around normal on Wednesday. There is the
potential for another system Wednesday night into Friday of next
week, although confidence is low at this time in regards track,
precipitation chances and amounts.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 28/12Z.
BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru 27/18Z, becoming SCT-BKN and
lowering to 14k-16k ft AGL thru the end of the forecast period. SFC
wind 12 kts or less, favoring a ELY/SELY direction thru the valid
period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions through Sunday, with a slight chance
(10 to 15 percent) of valley rain/mountain snow Sunday night into
Monday mainly east of Tucson. Above normal high temperatures
continue through Friday, cooling to near normal levels this weekend
and then a couple of degrees below normal early next week. Min RH
values will continue to be in the 20-30 percent through Sunday,
before briefly rising to 30-40 percent Monday. 20-foot sustained
winds of 15 mph of less through Saturday, favoring an east/southeast
direction today and normal diurnal wind trends Friday and Saturday.
Elevated west/northwest winds at 15-20 mph and gusts around 30 mph
to the east of Tucson Sunday and Monday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Zell

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