300
FXUS65 KTWC 171000
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 AM MST Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot conditions will continue across southeast
Arizona this week. The hottest temperatures of 2025 are forecast
to occur on Thursday with record or near record highs Thursday and
Friday. A passing weather system will bring breezy to locally
windy conditions today. Moisture increase this weekend will bring
a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly southeast
of Tucson Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The sky was clear across southeast Arizona this
morning with last nights upper air plots placing center of strong
upper high over northeast Sonora MX.

Today: Slightly cooler, but still hot, as a weather system moves
through the intermountain west. This system will bring breezes to
the area this afternoon which will be strongest in the Gila River
Valley where gusts up to 35 mph are possible. Combined with very
dry conditions, near critical to locally critical fire weather
conditions may exist for a few hours.

Wednesday: Highs similar to today and not as breezy as upper high
starts to expand across the region.

Thursday: Downright hot with Extreme Heat Warning in effect as
the upper high strengthens over the area. The increased upper
heights and lower thickness values brings the potential for the
hottest high temperatures of 2025 to most of the area with near
record highs. For Tucson, the 17/00z ensemble run has 32% of
members for 112-114F; 44% of members for 114-116F; and 10% of
members for 116-118F.

Friday: Extreme Heat Warning continues but highs will be a few
degrees cooler than Thursday.

Monsoonal moisture will be sloshing around southern Sonora MX this
week which will gradually push toward SE AZ this weekend as flow
aloft turns southerly. Big question at this time, it how big of a
push will there be and will the bulk of the moisture be pushed
into NM as an upper level trof deepens over the west coast. Thus a
dry SW flow aloft will be over the area vs moister southerly flow
aloft. With that in mind, no changes were made to the recommended
forecast initialization for Sunday and Monday which had less than
30% PoPs SE of Tucson.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/12Z.
SKC thru much of the valid pd with SCT 10-12k ft AGL SE of KTUS.
SFC winds until 17/18Z and then again aft 18/04Z will be terrain
driven and less than 10 kts. SFC winds at the inbetween times,
WLY/NWLY at 8-14 kts with gusts around 20 kts and 15-20 kts with
gusts to 30 kts at KSAD. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Near critical to locally critical fire weather
conditions may exist for a few hours within the upper Gila River
Valley to San Simon Valley (Safford and east to New Mexico) today.
Wind speeds expected to be around 20 mph with gusts peaking up 35
mph. Otherwise winds everywhere else will be 15 mph with gusts up
to 20 mph due to strong surface heating. Rest of the week, hot
and dry conditions expected with near to record breaking
temperatures on Thursday and Friday. Monsoon moisture will creep
along the International Border to bring slight chances for showers
and thunderstorms by the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

DATE                         Jun 19           Jun 20
                          FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       114 115/2017     110 116/2017
AJO                       112 114/2017     106 119/2017
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         109 119/2016     104 118/2016
PICACHO PEAK              109 115/2016     107 115/2017
SAFFORD AG STATION        111 113/2021     111 112/2017
SIERRA VISTA FD           104 106/1989     102 110/2017
TOMBSTONE                 104 108/1989     103 110/2017
WILLCOX                   106 108/2017     105 112/2017
DOUGLAS                   106 109/2017     104 108/2017

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 9 PM MST Friday for
  AZZ501>509.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson