593
FXUS65 KTWC 020917
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
217 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Some lingering shower activity will persist this
morning, then drier air moves in for the remainder of the work
week. High temperatures this week will be below normal for early
November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The last part of the weekend atmospheric river/heavy
rain event is pushing through early this morning with light to
moderate rain as the upper level trof and associated cold front
pushes to the east-southeast. Most of this shower activity will
be over by 9 am. The heavy rain this weekend has led to some
significant rises on some of our mainstem rivers, creeks and
washes. See hydro section below for additional details.

Dry for the rest of the week into the weekend. Weak ridging moves
through on Tuesday, then westerly flow on Wednesday as a system
moves through the Great Basin. Weak trofiness remains over the
area Thursday and Friday with upper level ridging building in
this weekend.

Highs today will run 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Highs Tuesday
through this upcoming weekend will mostly run 3 to 8 degrees
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 03/12Z.
A band of -SHRA with MVFR cigs/isold IFR cigs and MTN OBSCN is
associated with a cold front moving to the east-southeast. Most
of this activity will be done by 02/16z. Thereafter SCT 070-090
AGL thru 03/00z, then becoming SKC by 03/06z. SFC winds mostly
NW 5-10 kts with ocnl gusts to 20 kts this morning. Light
terrain driven winds after 03/03z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers will gradually end this morning with
dry conditions the rest of the day. Dry conditions will continue
through the rest of the work week. Afternoon high temperatures
will be below normal through the forecast period. Northwest winds
today then typical winds for the remainder of the week. Minimum
RH levels values this week mostly between 35 and 50 percent.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Rainfall of the past 48-72 hours led to some pretty
good rises on most of the main stem rivers and creeks. Although
most levels are holding steady or are slowly receding, the
immediate concern right now is the Gila River at Solomon where
Major flooding is forecast to occur late this morning where it
is expected to rise to 28.4 feet. Flood stage is 19.8 feet. A
Flood Warning is in effect until this evening.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Flood Watch until 5 AM MST early this morning for AZZ501>515.

&&

$$

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