Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
565 FXUS65 KTWC 020856 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 156 AM MST Fri Oct 2 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Quiet weather today for southeast Arizona with a general warming and drying trend in place. Breezy to windy conditions are anticipated this weekend with possible minor nuisance impacts. By the middle of next week, the warming and drying trend continues bringing minor to locally moderate HeatRisk for early October. && .DISCUSSION...Ridging is building into the Southwest as a shortwave moves into west Texas. High pressure will stay in place over the region into next week leading to a slow warmup and dry conditions. Highs from central Pima County westward will be a few degrees above normal and from Tucson east highs will be around normal to just below normal through Monday. The coolest temps will be east of Tucson. By the middle of next week temps will be above normal area wide. A backdoor cold front moving into the region today will be the reason for the temp disparity across the CWA. At the same time a strong easterly surface pressure gradient sets up leading to breezy easterly winds through Monday. Winds will increase starting early this morning with some higher elevation obs already seeing gusty easterly winds. Expect speeds generally 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. High elevation areas could see brief and localized higher wind gusts. Winds today will peak late morning into the early afternoon, taper some in the afternoon, then increase again overnight. The strongest winds will be in southern Cochise County and the Gila River Valley. Winds look to be strongest today and Sunday with the gradient weakening by Monday. Models show another easterly surface gradient setting up late next week. && .AVIATION... Valid thru 03/12Z. Clear skies across the majority of Southeast Arizona thru the forecast period. FEW 8-12k ft AGL will be possible along the AZ/NM border this afternoon evening. SFC winds ELY/SELY 10-15 kts through 02/14Z then 16-23 kts with gusts 25-35 kts this morning into the early afternoon. The strongest winds will be at KDUG and KSAD. After 03/06Z winds stay easterly but decrease slightly to 12-18 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A building ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest will warm temperatures west of Tucson this weekend. However, a dry backdoor front will move into the area from the east, keeping afternoon readings below normal from Tucson east into early next week. This front will result in breezy to locally windy east to southeast winds Friday into Monday of next week. Expect sustained easterly winds generally between 15 to 25 mph and gusts 30-35 mph, but there is a weak signal for locally higher end gusts upwards of 50 mph across the higher terrain areas near Sonoita and Elgin as well as the Upper Gila Valley near Safford. Minimum RH values will remain in the 35-45 percent in valley locations and 50-75 percent in the mountains through Monday, generally lowering to 15-25 percent the second half of next week as drier air moves into the region. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson